Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Tropical Depression (TD) 96W [ESTER]

for Saturday, 07 August 2010 [1:07 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat August 07 2010):

Now issuing 6-hrly web advisiories (except 12 AM PhT) on the newly-developed TD 96W (ESTER).

96W (ESTER) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 35 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 35 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96W [ESTER]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 001
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sat 07 August 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Depression 96W (ESTER) upgraded from a Low Pressure Area this morning -- has been relocated to the north as latest visible satellite photo reveals its Low-Level Circulation Center (LLCC) 100 km. to the north of its deep rain-cloud convection...still quasi-stationary over the Northern Philippine Sea. Southwest Monsoon (aka. "Habagat" in Tagalog) being pulled by this system, affecting the western areas of the Philippines.

*Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Ryukyu-Yaeyama Islands, Cagayan, Calayan-Babuyan-Batanes & Ilocos Provinces should closely monitor the progress of 96W (ESTER).

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Fri Jul 23 2010
Location of Center: 20.8º N Lat 124.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 305 km (165 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 385 km (208 nm) ENE of Calayan Island
Distance 3: 420 km (227 nm) NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 485 km (263 nm) SE of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 5: 710 km (385 nm) SSW of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Towards: Philippine Sea
Size (in Diameter): 400 km (215 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
T2K TrackMap #001 (for Public): 12 PM PhT Sat Aug 07

+ Forecast Outlook: 96W is expected to remain quasi-stationary for the next 6 to 12 hours and then track NW slowly for the next 24 hours. A developing disturbance (LPA 98W) over South China Sea has interacted with 96W causing the latter to remain Quasi-stationary w/ a possible northward movement. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: 96W's circulation is currently over the Northern Philippine Sea. Its outer bands continues to affect NE Luzon - moderate to strong winds of up to 40 kph w/ occasional rains can be expected along Calayan Islands, Balintang Channel, Batanes & Babuyan Group, Coastal Northern Cagayan & Ilocos Norte. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing on-&-off rains or showers can be expected along the following affected areas: ZAMBALES, BATAAN, METRO MANILA, WESTERN PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, WESTERN VISAYAS & WESTERN MINDANAO. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 45 kph) can be expected along these areas. Large ocean waves of 7 to 8 feet along the beach-front areas of the affected areas are likely to occur today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA/1010 MB) drifting West across the South China Sea...currently located near lat 16.5N lon 114.6E...or about 610 km West of La Union...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...moving West slowly. This system has a 40% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 24 to 48 hours.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: CAGAYAN, APAYAO, KALINGA, ABRA, ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, NORTHERN ISABELA, BATANES-BABUYAN-CALAYAN ISLANDS.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

External Links for TD 96W (ESTER)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists):
*N/A...(more)
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RECENT TYPHOON2000 TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 96W (ESTER)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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