for Sunday, 29 August 2010 [5:45 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun August 29 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA).
LIONROCK (FLORITA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM LIONROCK [FLORITA/07W/1006]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 008
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sun 29 August 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #09/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
LIONROCK (FLORITA) maintained its slow northward track across the northern part of the South China Sea...no change in strength.
Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Guangdong Province including Hong Kong should closely monitor the progress of LIONROCK.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sun Aug 29 2010
Location of Center: 20.6º N Lat 116.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 280 km (150 nm) SE of Hong Kong
Distance 2: 315 km (170 nm) SSW of Shantou, China
Distance 3: 595 km (320 nm) WSW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Eastern Guangdong
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 240 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Sun Aug 29
TS LIONROCK is expected to turn towards the NNW within the next 2 days and will strengthen into a severe tropical storm by early Tuesday morning [2AM AUG 31: 22.5N 115.6E @ 100kph]. The center will make landfall over Eastern Guangdong, or just to the east of Hong Kong Tuesday morning and will rapidly weaken overland [2PM AUG 31: 23.2N 114.9E @ 65kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 km/hr) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Just a remnant low pressure...dissipated overland as it traverses the mountainous terrain of Guangdong Province, just NW of Hong Kong. [2PM SEP 01: 24.1N 113.1E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
LIONROCK's circulation still slightly organized, with most of its rain-cloud bands sheared west and southwest of its center...Northern outermost rainbands has been spotted just off the southern shores of Eastern Guangdong. Tropical Storm Force Winds expected to reach Eastern Guangdong by tomorrow evening. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 240 mm (heavy) near the center of LIONROCK. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with on-&-off showers or rains can be expected along these following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON (ILOCOS REGION DOWN TO ZAMBALES). Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected. Meanwhile, ITCZ affecting most parts Mindanao.
Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA/1008 MB) organizing to the NE of Taiwan, located about 620 km NNE of Basco, Batanes (25.7N 123.9E)...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...drifting slowly Northward. The 48-hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential for 92W remains at 60% (High Chance).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DEPTH OF THE CON-
VECTIVE BANDING THAT IS MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. THE
LATEST STORM MOTION, WHICH IS MORE POLEWARD, INDICATES A POSSIBLE
INTERACTION WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE NORTH OF TAIWAN. TS 07W
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTH OF JAPAN. AFTER TAU
24, A SECONDARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER EASTERN CHINA WILL ASSUME
STEERING AND PROPEL THE SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH JGSM
ON THE EXTREME RIGHT AND GFS ON THE EXTREME LEFT OF THE ENVELOPE.
THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS...(more)
>> LIONROCK, meaning: A famous peak in Hong Kong, overlooking Kowloon Bay. Name contributed by: Hong Kong.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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