for Tuesday, 31 August 2010 [11:36 AM PhT]
<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun August 29 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web & e-mail advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA).
LIONROCK (FLORITA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM LIONROCK [FLORITA/07W/1006]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 013
12:00 PM PhT (22:00 GMT) Tue 31 August 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #16/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
LIONROCK (FLORITA) still drifting southeastward slowly while over the northern part of the South China Sea...no change in strength.
Residents and visitors along NW Luzon, Southern China particularly Guangdong Province including Hong Kong should closely monitor the progress of LIONROCK.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Tue Aug 31 2010
Location of Center: 20.2º N Lat 117.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 395 km (215 nm) NW of Laoag City, PH
Distance 2: 365 km (197 nm) SSE of Shantou, China
Distance 3: 415 km (225 nm) SE of Hong Kong
Distance 4: 470 km (255 nm) WSW of Basco, Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: SE @ 02 kph (01 kt)
Towards: South China Sea
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 390 km (210 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft (5.1 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Tue Aug 31
TS LIONROCK is expected to resume tracking NE to NNE for the next 24 hours, before turning north to NW...likely to become a minimal Typhoon tomorrow morning [8AM SEP 01: 21.4N 118.7E @ 120kph]. The storm will pass to the west of SW Taiwan tomorrow evening [8PM SEP 01: 22.6N 119.1E @ 120kph], and will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm as it turns North to NNW towards the coast of Southern Fujian on Thursday morning [8AM SEP 02: 23.6N 118.9E @ 110kph]. On this forecast track, LIONROCK will make landfall over Southern Fujian around Thursday night or early Friday morning.
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 100 km/hr (55 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 130 kilometers (70 nautical miles) from the center.
FRIDAY MORNING: Over Southern Fujian-Eastern Guangdong Area as a weakened Tropical Storm [8AM SEP 03: 24.8N 117.7E @ 65kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Just a remnant low pressure...dissipating over the mountainous terrain of Jiangxi Province [8AM SEP 04: 26.3N 116.3E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
LIONROCK's strong circulation continues to meander over the warm waters of the South China Sea. If the forecast track goes well, Tropical Storm Force Winds are expected to reach the western coast of Western Taiwan tomorrow evening...and over Southern Fujian Thursday morning (Sep 02). Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 250 mm (heavy) near the center of LIONROCK. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing on-&-off showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: LUZON including METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, PARTS OF WESTERN VISAYAS, WESTERN MINDANAO AND BATANES-CALAYAN-BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON A 302243Z WINDSAT PASS.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK
T-NUMBER ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 3.0 TO 3.5.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION
REDEVELOPING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TRANSLA-
TION SPEED HAS SLOWED DUE TO DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH
TS 09W. INTENSITY HAS REMAINED STEADY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS STRONG
EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT HAS OFFSET THE NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...(more)
>> LIONROCK, meaning: A famous peak in Hong Kong, overlooking Kowloon Bay. Name contributed by: Hong Kong.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
Copyright © 2010 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved
No comments:
Post a Comment