Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS DIANMU [ESTER]

for Tuesday, 10 August 2010 [7:46 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue August 10 2010):

Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA) has become smaller and weaker as it passed to the north of Palau Island...will be closely monitored for further developments - details below. Currently issuing 6-hrly advisiories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS DIANMU (ESTER).

DIANMU (ESTER) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 kph

TROPICAL STORM DIANMU [ESTER/05W/1004]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 009
7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tue 10 August 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #008/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Storm DIANMU (ESTER) slows down while moving northward across the East China Sea...threat to the Korean Peninsula increases.

*Residents and visitors along Eastern China, North & South Korea including Cheju Island should closely monitor the progress of DIANMU (ESTER).

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 7:00 AM PhT Tue Aug 10 2010
Location of Center: 30.3º N Lat 125.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 360 km (197 nm) ESE of Shanghai, China
Distance 2: 380 km (208 nm) SSW of Cheju Is., S.Korea
Distance 3: 510 km (273 nm) SW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 660 km (355 nm) SW of Busan, S.Korea
Distance 5: 830 km (450 nm) SSW of Seoul
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 80 mm [Moderate]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Present Movement: North @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Cheju-South Korea Area
Size (in Diameter): 705 km (380 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft (4.8 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Tue Aug 10

+ Forecast Outlook: DIANMU is expected to continue tracking Northward within the next 06 hours before turning NE to ENE-ward. It will pass to the west of the South Korean Resort island of Cheju this evening [2AM AUG 11: 34.3N 126.1E @ 100kph], and make landfall over South Korea via the SW Coast tomorrow morning, passing over or very close to Taegu City tomorrow afternoon [2PM AUG 11: 36.0N 128.3E @ 85kph]. The 2 to 3-Day Medium-Range Forecast Track shows the system entering the Sea of Japan by early Thursday morning [2AM AUG 12: 37.7N 131.9E @ 65kph]. Upon moving across the Sea of Japan, ENE or Eastward, DIANMU will become an Extratropical Cyclone (ET) on Friday [2PM AUG 13: 40.3N 141.9E @ 55kph] while in the vicinity of Northern Honshu or near the city of Misawa (Japan). Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: DIANMU's large circulation remains over the East China Sea...its outer bands now spreading across the coast of South Korea including Cheju Island. Intense rain and wind convection of this system are located along the SE and Eastern quadrants. Strong winds of 65 kph with higher gusts can be expected along these quadrants. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 60 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 80 mm (moderate) near the center of DIANMU. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing light to moderate rains can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON including portions of METRO MANILA, BATANES, PANGASINAN, LUBANG ISLAND & CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, MINDORO. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected along these areas. Large ocean waves of 7 to 8 feet along the beach-front areas of the affected areas are likely to occur today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA/1010 MB) has become smaller, just passed to the North of Palau Island, as it tracks NW @ 19 kph. Located near lat 10.0N lon 133.0E...or about 820 km East of Surigao City...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 25 kph near the center. This system has a 40% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 24 to 48 hours.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

External Links for TS DIANMU (ESTER)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0510.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) TUE 10 AUGUST POSITION: 29.8N 125.2E.
*RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AS A RESULT, THE MOST RECENT DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM PGTW REMAINS AT A 3.0 OR 45 KNOTS. RJTD'S ESTIMATE OF
2.5 (35 KNOTS) IS LIKELY TOO LOW, AND KNES'S ESTIMATE OF 4.0 (65
KNOTS) IS MUCH TOO HIGH GIVEN THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW, LOCATED WITHIN ONE DEGREE TO THE NORTHWEST, IS
LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR DAMPENING THE CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
HALF. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION CONITUNES TO FLARE ON THE EASTERN SIDE.
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE
STORM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS SOUTHERN KOREA ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENSION OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
EAST, AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 10/1800Z AS A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM...(more)

>> DIANMU, meaning: Mother of lightning. Name contributed by: China.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):

> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS DIANMU (ESTER)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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