Saturday, April 04, 2015

Typhoon MAYSAK (CHEDENG) Update #014


for Saturday, 04 April 2015 [3:56 PM PhT]


Issued at: 1:30 PM PhT (05:30 GMT) Saturday 04 April 2015
Next Update: Saturday Evening, 04 April 2015

Typhoon MAYSAK (CHEDENG) has moved generally westward with increasing speed during the past 6 hours...threatening further Northern and Central Luzon. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the shores of Aurora or Isabela by Sunday early morning (Apr 05)...with a Strike Probability of 60 to 90 percent.

Typhoon Trivia: The last Typhoon ever to make landfall over Northern Luzon in April was Typhoon VIOLET (KARING) of March 31-April 12, 1967...where it impacted Isabela and nearby provinces on the 8th, with estimated winds of 185 kph. Only 3 deaths were reported during its passage with considerable damage.

Residents and visitors along Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the development of Maysak (Chedeng).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.


  • Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Northern Aurora, Quirino and Isabela - beginning Sunday morning (Apr 05) through Monday morning (Apr 06).
  • Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northern Bicol, Northern Quezon, Southern Aurora and Southern Cagayan - beginning Saturday evening (Apr 04) through Monday morning (Apr 06).
  • Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Isabela, Northern Aurora and Quirino - beginning Saturday late evening (Apr 04) through Sunday morning (Apr 05).
  • Moderate to Strong Winds (gusts of up to 75 kph): Northern Catanduanes - beginning Saturday afternoon (Apr 04). Southern Cagayan, Southern Aurora, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Mountain Province and Kalinga - beginning Saturday late evening (Apr 04) through Sunday morning (Apr 05).


As of 11:00 AM PhT today, Apr 04...0300 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY Maysak (Chedeng)
Location: Over the western part of the Philippine Sea (near 14.6N 125.7E)
About: 185 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes...or 425 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 130 kph near the center...Gustiness: 160 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 30 to 250 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 505 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 140 km North from the Center and 90 km South from the Center
Past Movement: West @ 27 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 22 kph
Towards: Western Part of the Philippine Sea and Eastern Luzon


TY MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will resume its west-northwest track during the forecast outlook...with a slight turn to the northwest on the second half of the forecast period. On the forecast track, MAYSAK (CHEDENG) shall be moving across the Western Part of the Philippine Sea through Sunday early morning...and shall make landfall along the shores near the Aurora-Isabela border sometime before sunrise. It shall then traverse Northern Luzon crossing Southern Isabela, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Kalinga and Abra on Sunday morning through the late afternoon...and shall be over the West Philippine Sea on the evening, (April 5).

MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will maintain its weakening trend throughout the forecast period...Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 75 kph by Monday early morning, April 6.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SUNDAY MORNING: Over Southern Isabela...after making landfall along the shores near the border of Isabela and Aurora...weakens into a strong Tropical Storm (TS)...about 40 km southeast of Cauayan, Isabela [8AM APR 05: 16.6N 121.9E @ 100kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Leaving the P.A.R. through the northwestern border...just a weak TS...about 290 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8AM APR 06: 19.0N 118.0E @ 75kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Slows down over the northernmost part of the South China Sea...weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD)...about 300 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China [8AM APR 07: 19.7N 115.3E @ 45kph].

*Current WPF Forecast Confidence Level: HIGH.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat Apr 04, 2015
Location of Center: Near 14.6º N Lat 125.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 170 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 225 km ENE of Caramoan, Camarines Sur
Distance 3: 275 km NE of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 4: 290 km ENE of Metro Naga, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 470 km ESE of Baler, Aurora









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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