Thursday, April 02, 2015

Typhoon MAYSAK (CHEDENG) Update #007


for Thursday, 02 April 2015 [8:46 PM PhT]


Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday 02 April 2015
Next Update: Early Friday Morning, 03 April 2015

Typhoon MAYSAK (CHEDENG) has maintained its rapid weakening trend while moving across the easternmost part of the Philippine Sea...threat to Central and Northern Luzon continues. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the shores of Aurora or Isabela by late Saturday evening (Apr 04)...with a Strike Probability of 50 to 70 percent.

Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the development of Maysak (Chedeng).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.


  • Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northern Bicol, and Eastern sections of Central and Northern Luzon - Saturday morning (Apr 04) through Sunday morning (Apr 05).
  • Moderate to Strong Winds (gusts of up to 75 kph): Northern Catanduanes - beginning Saturday afternoon (Apr 04). Eastern sections of Central and Northern Luzon - beginning Saturday evening (Apr 04).


As of 5:00 PM PhT today, Apr 02...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY Maysak (Chedeng)
Location: Over the easternmost part of the Philippine Sea (near 13.1N 133.0E)
About: 840 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar...or 955 km east-southeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 165 kph near the center...Gustiness: 205 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 50 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 800 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 130 km North from the Center and 85 km South from the Center
Past Movement: Northwest @ 15 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 19 kph
Towards: Eastern Philippine Sea


TY MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will move west-northwestward during the next 24 hours...with a slight bend to the west at an increasing speed on the remainder of the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, MAYSAK (CHEDENG) shall be moving across the Central and Western Part of the Philippine Sea through Saturday afternoon...approaching Aurora Province.

MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will continue to gradually lose strength throughout the forecast period. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 120 kph by Saturday afternoon.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Moves over the eastern part of the Philippine Sea...continues its weakening trend...about 580 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM APR 03: 14.3N 129.5E @ 160kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Just barely a Typhoon as it significantly gain more speed...across the Philippine Sea, passing well to north of Bicol Region...about 200 km north-northeast of Caramoan, Camarines Sur [2PM APR 04: 15.3N 124.8E @ 120kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Accelerates further and weakens into a Tropical Storm after traversing Northern-Central Luzon Area...just along the West Coast of Northern Luzon...about 100 km west-southwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [2PM APR 05: 17.3N 119.5E @ 85kph].

*Current WPF Forecast Confidence Level: HIGH.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu Apr 02, 2015
Location of Center: Near 13.1º N Lat 133.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 915 km ENE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 975 km E of Sorsogon City
Distance 3: 1000 km ESE of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 4: 1060 km ESE of Metro Naga
Distance 5: 1220 km SE of Casiguran, Aurora

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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