for Friday, 03 April 2015 [9:00 PM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON MAYSAK (CHEDENG) UPDATE NUMBER 011
Issued at: 6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Friday 03 April 2015
Next Update: Friday Early Morning, 04 April 2015
Typhoon MAYSAK (CHEDENG) has become smaller while moving slightly westward across the not-so-warm part of the Philippine Sea...continues losing strength as it moves closer to Luzon. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the shores of Aurora or Isabela by early Sunday morning (Apr 05)...with a Strike Probability of 60 to 80 percent.
Typhoon Trivia: The last Typhoon ever to make landfall over Northern Luzon in April was Typhoon VIOLET (KARING) of March 31-April 12, 1967...where it impacted Isabela and nearby provinces on the 8th, with estimated winds of 185 kph. Only 3 deaths were reported during its passage with considerable damage.
Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the development of Maysak (Chedeng).
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.
- Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northern Bicol and Eastern sections of Central and Northern Luzon - Saturday evening (Apr 04) through Monday morning (Apr 06).
- Moderate to Strong Winds (gusts of up to 75 kph): Northern Catanduanes - beginning Saturday afternoon (Apr 04). Eastern sections of Central and Northern Luzon - beginning Saturday evening (Apr 04).
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 5:00 PM PhT today, Apr 03...0900 GMT.
Classification/Name: TY Maysak (Chedeng)
Location: Over the eastern part of the Philippine Sea (near 14.2N 129.5E)
About: 575 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes...or 825 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 150 kph near the center...Gustiness: 185 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 50 to 300 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 505 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 130 km North from the Center and 95 km South from the Center
Past Movement: West @ 12 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 22 kph
Towards: Central and Western Part of the Philippine Sea
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TY MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will move on a generally west-northwest track throughout the forecast outlook...with a slight turn to the northwest on the second half of the forecast period. On the forecast track, MAYSAK (CHEDENG) shall be moving across the Central and Western Part of the Philippine Sea through Sunday early morning...and shall make landfall along the shores near the Aurora-Isabela border sometime before sunrise. It shall then traverse Northern Luzon crossing Southern Isabela, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Kalinga on Sunday morning...and over Abra-Ilocos area Sunday afternoon (April 5).
MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will continue its weakening trend throughout the forecast period. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 75 kph by Sunday afternoon, April 5.
The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Moves over the central part of the Philippine Sea while passing well to the northeast of Bicol Region...weakens into a strong Tropical Storm (TS)...about 135 km north-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes [2PM APR 04: 15.2N 124.7E @ 110kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Traverses Abra-Ilocos Provinces...after making landfall along the shores near Aurora-Isabela border...just a weak TS...about 50 km south-southeast of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2PM APR 05: 17.8N 120.8E @ 75kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Over the Northern part of the South China Sea...exits P.A.R. through the northwestern border...weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD)...about 415 km southeast of Hong Kong, China [2PM APR 06: 20.4N 117.7E @ 55kph].
*Current WPF Forecast Confidence Level: HIGH.
Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri Apr 03, 2015
Location of Center: Near 14.2º N Lat 129.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 565 km ENE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 615 km ENE of Caramoan, Camarines Sur
Distance 3: 640 km ENE of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 4: 685 km ENE of Metro Naga, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 865 km ESE of Baler, Aurora
Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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