Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD MAYSAK (CHEDENG) Update #019

for Sunday, 05 April 2015 [8:00 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAYSAK (CHEDENG) UPDATE NUMBER 019
Issued at: 6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Sunday 05 April 2015
Next Update: Monday Morning, 06 April 2015

Tropical Depression MAYSAK (CHEDENG) has weakened further after crossing the northern part of Northern Luzon...emerges over the west coast of Ilocos Norte. Its rainbands will continue to dump moderate to heavy rains with thunderstorms across the area. Maysak (Chedeng) will therefore weaken into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Residents and visitors along Northern and Central Luzon should closely monitor the development of Maysak (Chedeng).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Northern Aurora, Quirino and Isabela - today through Monday morning (Apr 06).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northern Quezon incl. Polilio Is., Southern Aurora and Southern Cagayan - today through Monday morning (Apr 06).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, Apr 05...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TD Maysak (Chedeng)
Location: Over the West Coast of Ilocos Norte (near 18.5N 120.4E)
About: 45 km west of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte...or 40 km north-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center...Gustiness: 65 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 30 to 200 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: Northwest @ 33 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest @ 16 kph
Towards: West Philippine Sea/South China Sea

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TD MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will continue to move northwestward throughout the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will move across the West Philippine Sea tonight and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (P.A.R.) through the northwestern border. It will be over the northwestern part of the South China Sea.

MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will maintain its weakening trend throughout the forecast period...dissipating into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) later tonight or tomorrow. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 35 kph on Monday, April 6.

The following is the 1-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Over the South China Sea, west of the northwestern border of P.A.R....dissipates into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA)...about 425 km southeast of Hong Kong, China [2PM APR 06: 20.4N 117.8E @ 35kph].

*Current WPF Forecast Confidence Level: HIGH.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun Apr 05, 2015
Location of Center: Near 18.5º N Lat 120.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 100 km N of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur
Distance 2: 125 km W of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 145 km WSW of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 4: 170 km NW of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 5: 455 km S of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
STORMTRACK:

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CURRENT UW-CIMSS/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD MAYSAK (CHEDENG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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