Friday, April 03, 2015

Typhoon MAYSAK (CHEDENG) Update #010


for Friday, 03 April 2015 [3:28 PM PhT]


Issued at: 1:30 PM PhT (05:30 GMT) Friday 03 April 2015
Next Update: Friday Evening, 03 April 2015

Typhoon MAYSAK (CHEDENG) has shifted its track more to the west over the past six hours as it further weakens but still sustaining a typhoon strength...threatening Central and Northern Luzon. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the shores of Aurora or Isabela by early Sunday morning (Apr 05)...with a Strike Probability of 60 to 80 percent.

Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the development of Maysak (Chedeng).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.


  • Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northern Bicol and Eastern sections of Central and Northern Luzon - Saturday evening (Apr 04) through Monday morning (Apr 06).
  • Moderate to Strong Winds (gusts of up to 75 kph): Northern Catanduanes - beginning Saturday afternoon (Apr 04). Eastern sections of Central and Northern Luzon - beginning Saturday evening (Apr 04).


As of 11:00 AM PhT today, Apr 03...0300 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY Maysak (Chedeng)
Location: Over the eastern part of the Philippine Sea (near 14.1N 130.3E)
About: 600 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar...or 660 km east of Virac, Catanduanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 160 kph near the center...Gustiness: 195 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 50 to 300 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 635 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 120 km North from the Center and 85 km South from the Center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 22 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 21 kph
Towards: Central Philippine Sea


TY MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will continue to move on a generally west-northwest track throughout the forecast outlook...with a slight turn to the northwest on the second half of the forecast period. On the forecast track, MAYSAK (CHEDENG) shall be moving across the Central and Western Part of the Philippine Sea through Sunday early morning...and shall make landfall along the shores near Aurora-Isabela border sometime before sunrise.

MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will continue the weakening trend throughout the forecast period. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 100 kph by Sunday morning.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Moves over the central part of the Philippine Sea...weakens into a minimal typhoon...about 255 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [8AM APR 04: 14.8N 126.2E @ 120kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Traverses Southern Isabela...after making landfall along the shores near Aurora-Isabela border...downgraded into a Tropical Storm...about 35 km south-southeast of Cauayan, Isabela [8AM APR 05: 16.6N 121.8E @ 100kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Over the Northern part of the South China it leaves P.A.R. through the northwestern border...weakens further...about 395 km west-northwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [8AM APR 06: 19.1N 117.0E @ 75kph].

*Current WPF Forecast Confidence Level: HIGH.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri Apr 03, 2015
Location of Center: Near 14.1º N Lat 130.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 640 km ENE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 690 km ENE of Sorsogon City
Distance 3: 700 km E of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 4: 770 km E of Metro Naga
Distance 5: 910 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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