for Sunday, 05 April 2015 [3:38 AM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK (CHEDENG) UPDATE NUMBER 016
Issued at: 1:30 AM PhT (17:30 GMT) Sunday 05 April 2015
Next Update: Sunday Morning, 05 April 2015
Tropical Storm MAYSAK (CHEDENG) continues losing strength as its main circulation becomes disorganized...remains a threat to Northern Luzon. Its Rainbands continues to dump rains across most parts of the Bicol Region. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the shores of Aurora or Isabela by Sunday early morning (Apr 05)...with a Strike Probability of 70 to 90 percent.
Residents and visitors along Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the development of Maysak (Chedeng).
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.
- Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Northern Aurora, Quirino and Isabela - beginning early Sunday morning (Apr 05) through Monday morning (Apr 06).
- Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northern Bicol, Southern portion of Southern Quezon, Northern Quezon incl. Polillo Islands, Southern Aurora and Southern Cagayan - today through Monday morning (Apr 06).
- Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Isabela, Northern Aurora and Quirino - beginning Saturday late evening (Apr 04) through Sunday morning (Apr 05).
- Moderate to Strong Winds (gusts of up to 75 kph): Northern Catanduanes - today (Apr 04). Southern Cagayan, Southern Aurora, Nueva Vizcaya, and Southern Cagayan - beginning Saturday late evening (Apr 04) through Sunday morning (Apr 05).
- Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 0.5-1.5 m (1.5-5 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern Bicol - tonight...and across Northern Quezon, Aurora and Isabela - tonight through Sunday morning (Apr 05). Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of the Rest of Northern and Central Luzon, Visayas and the Rest of Bicol Region. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 11:00 PM PhT yesterday, Apr 04...1500 GMT.
Classification/Name: TS Maysak (Chedeng)
Location: Over the western part of the Philippine Sea (near 15.6N 123.8E)
About: 195 km north-northeast of Daet, Camarines Norte...or 195 km southeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 95 kph near the center...Gustiness: 120 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 30 to 200 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 70 km North from the Center and 40 km South from the Center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 16 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest @ 25 kph
Towards: Western Part of the Philippine Sea and Northern Luzon
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will continue moving west-northwest to northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, MAYSAK (CHEDENG) shall be moving across the Western Part of the Philippine Sea through Sunday early morning...and shall make landfall along the shores near the Aurora-Isabela border sometime before sunrise. It shall then traverse Northern Luzon crossing Southern Isabela, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Kalinga and Abra on Sunday morning...and shall emerge over the coast of Ilocos Sur or West Philippine Sea in the afternoon and evening (April 5). By Monday evening (April 6), Maysak shall already be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (P.A.R.) or over the South China Sea.
MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will maintain its weakening trend throughout the forecast period especially when it enters the land mass of Northern Luzon...Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 55 kph by Sunday evening, April 6.
The following is the 2-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:
SUNDAY EVENING: Over the west coast of Ilocos Sur, after crossing Northern Luzon...weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD)...about 105 km west of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8PM APR 05: 18.2N 119.6E @ 55kph].
MONDAY EVENING: Exits P.A.R. through the northwestern border...dissipating into an area of Low Pressure over the South China Sea...about 435 km southeast of Hong Kong, China [8PM APR 06: 19.8N 117.5E @ 35kph].
*Current WPF Forecast Confidence Level: HIGH.
Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sat Apr 04, 2015
Location of Center: Near 15.6º N Lat 123.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 200 km N of Caramoan, Camarines Sur
Distance 2: 225 km NNW of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 170 km NNW of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 4: 230 km NNE of Metro Naga, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 235 km ESE of Baler, Aurora
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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