for Friday, 03 April 2015 [8:37 AM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON MAYSAK (CHEDENG) UPDATE NUMBER 009
Issued at: 6:45 AM PhT (22:45 GMT) Friday 03 April 2015
Next Update: Friday Afternoon, 03 April 2015
Typhoon MAYSAK (CHEDENG) continues to move across the Eastern part of the Philippine Sea and is now nearing the Central Part...threatening Central and Northern Luzon. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the shores of Aurora or Isabela by early Sunday morning (Apr 05)...with a Strike Probability of 50 to 70 percent.
Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the development of Maysak (Chedeng).
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.
- Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northern Bicol, and Eastern sections of Central and Northern Luzon - Saturday evening (Apr 04) through Sunday evening (Apr 05).
- Moderate to Strong Winds (gusts of up to 75 kph): Northern Catanduanes - beginning Saturday afternoon (Apr 04). Eastern sections of Central and Northern Luzon - beginning Saturday evening (Apr 04).
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 5:00 AM PhT today, Apr 03...2100 GMT.
Classification/Name: TY Maysak (Chedeng)
Location: Over the eastern part of the Philippine Sea (near 13.9N 131.5E)
About: 705 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar...or 790 km east of Virac, Catanduanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 165 kph near the center...Gustiness: 205 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 50 to 400 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 800 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 120 km North from the Center and 85 km South from the Center
Past Movement: Northwest @ 16 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 22 kph
Towards: Central Philippine Sea
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TY MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will move on a generally west-northwestward track throughout the forecast outlook...bending slightly to west during the first 24 hours. On the forecast track, MAYSAK (CHEDENG) shall be moving across the Central and Western Part of the Philippine Sea through Sunday early morning.
MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will continue the weakening trend throughout the forecast period. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 100 kph by Sunday early morning.
The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Moves over the central part of the Philippine Sea...continues to weaken...about 350 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM APR 04: 14.6N 127.3E @ 130kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Nearing the coasts of Aurora, downgraded into a Tropical Storm...about 70 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora [2AM APR 05: 16.0N 122.7E @ 100kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the northwestern border of P.A.R. as it slightly accelerates on its way to Southern China...weakens further...about 355 km northwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [2AM APR 06: 19.5N 117.7E @ 85kph].
*Current WPF Forecast Confidence Level: HIGH.
Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri Apr 03, 2015
Location of Center: Near 13.9º N Lat 131.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 760 km ENE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 815 km ENE of Sorsogon City
Distance 3: 830 km E of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 4: 895 km E of Metro Naga
Distance 5: 1045 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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