Thursday, April 02, 2015

Typhoon MAYSAK (CHEDENG) Update #005


for Thursday, 02 April 2015 (9:20 AM PhT]


Issued at: 7:30 AM PhT (23:30 GMT) Thursday 02 April 2015
Next Update: Thursday Afternoon, 02 April 2015

MAYSAK (CHEDENG) has weakened further slightly and was downgraded into a Typhoon few hours after it crossed the eastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late last night due to the continuing entrainment of dry air...but remains a threat to Central and Northern Luzon.

Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the development of Maysak.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.


  • Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northern Bicol, and Eastern sections of Central and Northern Luzon - Sunday morning (Apr 05) through Monday morning (Apr 06).
  • Moderate to Strong Winds (gusts of up to 75 kph): Catanduanes and Northern Coasts of Bicol - beginning Saturday afternoon (Apr 04). Eastern sections of Central and Northern Luzon - beginning Saturday evening (Apr 04).


As of 5:00 AM PhT today, Apr 02...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY Maysak (Chedeng)
Location: Over the easternmost part of the Philippine Sea (near 12.2N 134.3E)
About: 970 km east-northeast of Borongan City...or 1,105 km east-southeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 205 kph near the center...Gustiness: 250 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 50 to 300 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 933 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 780 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 120 km North from the Center and 74 km South from the Center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 14 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest to West-Northwest @ 16 kph
Towards: Eastern Philippine Sea


TY MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will move on a generally northwest track during the next 24 hours...turning to west-northwest with slightly increasing speed on the remainder of the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, MAYSAK (CHEDENG) shall be moving across the Eastern and Central Part of the Philippine Sea through Saturday early morning.

MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will continue to gradually lose strength throughout the forecast period. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 150 kph by Saturday early morning.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Moves over the eastern part of the Philippine Sea...weakens further slightly...about 810 km east of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM APR 03: 13.8N 131.7E @ 185kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to weaken as it moves across the Central part of the Philippine Sea, gaining speed...about 380 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM APR 04: 15.0N 127.4E @ 150kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm...approaching the coasts of Aurora...about 105 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora [2AM APR 05: 15.8N 123.0E @ 110kph].

*Current WPF Forecast Confidence Level: HIGH.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu Apr 02, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 12.2º N Lat 134.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 945 km ENE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 1115 km ESE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 1250 km ESE of Daet, Camarines Norte
Distance 4: 1120 km ESE of Sorsogon City
Distance 5: 1215 km ESE of Metro Naga









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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