for Friday, 03 April 2015 [2:00 AM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON MAYSAK (CHEDENG) UPDATE NUMBER 008
Issued at: 1:45 AM PhT (17:45 GMT) Friday 03 April 2015
Next Update: Friday Morning, 03 April 2015
Typhoon MAYSAK (CHEDENG) hanging tough as it moves slowly across the Eastern Philippine Sea...threatening Central and Northern Luzon. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the shores of Aurora or Isabela by early Sunday morning (Apr 05)...with a Strike Probability of 50 to 70 percent.
Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the development of Maysak (Chedeng).
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.
- Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northern Bicol, and Eastern sections of Central and Northern Luzon - Saturday morning (Apr 04) through Sunday morning (Apr 05).
- Moderate to Strong Winds (gusts of up to 75 kph): Northern Catanduanes - beginning Saturday afternoon (Apr 04). Eastern sections of Central and Northern Luzon - beginning Saturday evening (Apr 04).
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 11:00 PM PhT yesterday, Apr 02...1500 GMT.
Classification/Name: TY Maysak (Chedeng)
Location: Over the easternmost part of the Philippine Sea (near 13.5N 132.3E)
About: 770 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar...or 675 km east of Virac, Catanduanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 165 kph near the center...Gustiness: 205 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 50 to 400 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 800 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 130 km North from the Center and 85 km South from the Center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 14 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 19 kph
Towards: Eastern and Central Philippine Sea
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TY MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will move west-northwestward to slightly westward during the next 24 hours...with a slight bend to the west-northwest on the remainder of the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, MAYSAK (CHEDENG) shall be moving across the Central and Western Part of the Philippine Sea through Saturday evening..
MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will continue the weakening trend throughout the forecast period. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 100 kph by Saturday evening.
The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:
FRIDAY EVENING: Moves over the eastern and central part of the Philippine Sea...continues to weaken...about 485 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [8PM APR 03: 14.3N 128.6E @ 140kph].
SATURDAY EVENING: Passing well to the north of Bicol Peninsula, downgraded into a Tropical Storm...about 165 km north of Caramoan, Camarines Sur [8PM APR 04: 15.3N 123.7E @ 100kph].
SUNDAY EVENING: Emerges along the West Coast of Luzon (Ilocos Sur) after crossing Northern Luzon...about 155 km west-northwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [8PM APR 05: 18.0N 119.0E @ 85kph].
*Current WPF Forecast Confidence Level: HIGH.
Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Thu Apr 02, 2015
Location of Center: Near 13.5º N Lat 132.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 840 km ENE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 900 km ENE of Sorsogon City
Distance 3: 920 km ESE of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 4: 985 km E of Metro Naga
Distance 5: 1135 km SE of Casiguran, Aurora
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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