Friday, November 30, 2012

TS BOPHA (26W) - Update #013


for Friday, 30 November 2012 [12:18 PM PhT]


Issued: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Friday 30 Nov 2012
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Friday 30 Nov 2012

Tropical Storm Bopha has slightly gained strength as it moves towards Yap and the Republic of Palau.

Residents and visitors along Micronesia, Marianas and the Philippines should closely monitor the development of Bopha (26W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 11 am today, the center of Tropical Storm Bopha was located over Central Micronesia...about 1,095 km south of Hagatna, Guam or 2,150 km east-southeast of Mindanao, Philippines...currently moving west with a forward speed of 17 km/hr in the general direction of Yap and Palau Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 100 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 120 kilometers from the center. Bopha is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of TS Bopha is estimated to be extreme (500 mm).


Tropical Storm Bopha is expected to turn west-northwest for the next 12 to 24 hours with a slight forward speed...and this motion will continue during the next 2 to 3 days. On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to continue moving across Central Micronesia through Saturday...approaching Western Micronesia on Sunday morning. The potential typhoon will pass just south of Yap and Ulithi Islands by noon of Sunday...and very near Palau Islands on Monday morning as Bopha enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Bopha will continue to gain strength throughout the forecast period...and could become a Typhoon later this afternooon or tonight.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Strengthens into a Typhoon while moving across Central Micronesia...turns sharply WNW...about 674 km southeast of Colonia, Yap Is., Federated State of Micronesia (FSM) [11AM DEC 01: 5.1N 142.3E @ 140kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Upgraded to a Category 2 Typhoon as it approaches Western Micronesia...about 324 km south of Colonia, Yap Is., FSM [11AM DEC 02: 6.6N 138.4E @ 175kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Upgraded to a Category 3 Typhoon as it moves away from the Republic of Palau...enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 109 km north-northwest of Koror, Palau [11AM DEC 03: 8.1N 134.1E @ 195kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (West Pacific Ocean)...possible "Eye" may be forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (100-130 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the smaller islands of Central Micronesia. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the smaller islands of Central Micronesia. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Bopha.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri November 30, 2012
Class/Name: TS Bopha (26W)
Location of Center: 3.7º N Lat 145.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 1,095 km (S) from Hagatna, Guam
Distance 2: 1,058 km (SE) from Colonia, Yap
Distance 3: 1,187 km (E) from the P.A.R.
Distance 4: 1,300 km (ESE) from Koror, Palau
Distance 5: 2,150 km (ESE) from Mindanao, PH
Distance 6: 2,373 km (SE) from Samar, PH
Distance 7: 2,587 km (SE) from Bicol Region, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph
Present Movement: West @ 17 kph
Towards: Yap-Palau Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS BOPHA...go visit our website @:


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