WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA UPDATE NUMBER 003
Issued: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Tuesday 27 Nov 2012
Next Update: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Tuesday 27 Nov 2012
26W is now named BOPHA as it strengthens into a Tropical Storm...barely moving off Eastern Micronesia. "Bopha" is a Cambodian name for a little girl or a flower.
Residents and visitors along Micronesia, Marianas and the Philippnes should closely monitor the development of Bopha (26W).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 5 am today, the center of Tropical Storm Bopha remains over Eastern Micronesia...about 585 km southeast of Chuuk Islands, Micronesia or 3,270 km east-southeast of Mindanao, Philippines...currently quasi-stationary during the past 6 hours.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 65 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. . Bopha is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of TS Bopha is estimated to be heavy (200 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Tropical Storm Bopha is expected to move slowly westward for the next 24 to 48 hours...with a slight acceleration through the next 72 hours (Friday morning). On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to pass well to the south of Chuuk Islands on Wednesday evening...and should continue towards Central Micronesia and the Caroline Islands thru Friday morning.
Bopha is expected to intensify throughout the forecast period...and could become a Typhoon on Tuesday evening or Friday morning.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Maintains its westerly track...continues to intensify while approaching Central Micronesia...about 385 km south-southeast of Chuuk Islands [5AM NOV 28: 4.5N 153.7E @ 75kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Nearing typhoon intensity as it moves across Central Micronesia...about 338 km south-southwest of Chuuk Islands [5AM NOV 29: 4.7N 150.4E @ 100kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Becomes a typhoon while turning slightly west-northwest towards Western Micronesia and the Caroline Islands...about 955 km south-southeast of Guam, CNMI [5AM NOV 30: 5.0N 146.6E @ 130kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Eastern Micronesia particularly Pohnpei and Kosrae Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Bopha.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue November 27, 2012
Class/Name: TS Bopha (26W)
Location of Center: 4.2º N Lat 156.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 585 km (SE) closer to Chuuk Is., FSM
Distance 2: 1,606 km (SE) closer to Guam, CNMI
Distance 3: 2,061 km (ESE) closer to Yap Is., FSM
Distance 4: 2,328 km (E) closer to P.A.R.
Distance 5: 2,403 km (ESE) closer to Palau Is., FSM
Distance 6: 3,270 km (ESE) closer to Mindanao, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph
Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Towards: Micronesia-Caroline Islands
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [200 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS BOPHA...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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