WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA UPDATE NUMBER 012
Issued: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Friday 30 Nov 2012
Next Update: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Friday 30 Nov 2012
Tropical Storm Bopha continues to move westward across Central Micronesia...slowly intensifying...forecast to reach Palau Islands early Monday morning.
Residents and visitors along Micronesia, Marianas and the Philippines should closely monitor the development of Bopha (26W).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 5 am today, the center of Tropical Storm Bopha was located over Central Micronesia...about 1,107 km south-southeast of Hagatna, Guam or 2,250 km east-southeast of Mindanao, Philippines...currently moving west with a forward speed of 19 km/hr in the general direction of Yap and Palau Area.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 95 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 100 kilometers from the center. Bopha is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of TS Bopha is estimated to be extreme (500 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Tropical Storm Bopha is expected to continue moving westward for the next 12 hours...with a gradual turn to the west-northwest during the next 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to move across Central Micronesia through Saturday...approaching Western Micronesia on Sunday morning. The potential typhoon will pass just south of Yap and Ulithi Islands on Sunday afternoon...and near Palau Islands Monday morning. Bopha may enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) approximately between 7-8 am Manila Time on Monday.
Bopha is expected to gain strength throughout the forecast period...and may become a Typhoon tonight.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
SATURDAY MORNING: Strengthens into a Typhoon while moving across Central Micronesia...turns sharply WNW...about 729 km southeast of Colonia, Yap Is., Federated State of Micronesia (FSM) [5AM DEC 01: 5.1N 143.0E @ 130kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Upgraded to a Category 2 Typhoon as it approaches Western Micronesia...about 313 km south-southeast of Colonia, Yap Is., FSM [5AM DEC 02: 6.9N 139.2E @ 165kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Upgraded to a Category 3 Typhoon as it passes close to Palau Islands...approaching the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 133 km northeast of Koror [5AM DEC 03: 8.0N 135.4E @ 185kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (West Pacific Ocean)...possible "Eye" may be forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (95-120 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO). INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the smaller islands of Central Micronesia. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the smaller islands of Central Micronesia. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Bopha.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri November 30, 2012
Class/Name: TS Bopha (26W)
Location of Center: 3.7º N Lat 146.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 1,107 km (SSE) from Hagatna, Guam
Distance 2: 1,139 km (SE) from Colonia, Yap
Distance 3: 1,287 km (E) from the P.A.R.
Distance 4: 1,394 km (ESE) from Koror, Palau
Distance 5: 2,250 km (ESE) from Mindanao, PH
Distance 6: 2,495 km (SE) from Samar, PH
Distance 7: 2,677 km (SE) from Bicol Region, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph
Present Movement: West @ 19 kph
Towards: Yap-Palau Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS BOPHA...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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