Thursday, November 29, 2012

TS BOPHA (26W) - Update #011


for Thursday, 29 November 2012 [7:06 PM PhT]


Issued: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thursday 29 Nov 2012
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Friday 30 Nov 2012

Tropical Storm Bopha slightly weaker as it slows down over Central Micronesia...still forecast to reach Palau Islands on Sunday evening.

Residents and visitors along Micronesia, Marianas and the Philippines should closely monitor the development of Bopha (26W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 5 pm today, the center of Tropical Storm Bopha was located over Central Micronesia...about 526 km southwest of Chuuk Islands, Micronesia or 2,463 km east-southeast of Mindanao, Philippines...currently moving west with a forward speed of 15 km/hr in the general direction of Palau and Yap Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 95 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 100 kilometers from the center. Bopha is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of TS Bopha is estimated to be heavy (350 mm).


Tropical Storm Bopha is expected to continue moving westward for the next 24 hours...with a turn to the west-northwest during the next 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to move across Central Micronesia Friday afternoon...approaching Western Micronesia on Saturday afternoon. The potential typhoon will pass just south of Yap and Ulithi Islands on Sunday morning...and very near Palau Islands Sunday evening.

Bopha is expected to gain strength throughout the forecast period...and may become a Typhoon on Friday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens into a Typhoon while moving across Central Micronesia...turns slightly WNW...about 883 km southeast of Colonia, Yap Is., Federated State of Micronesia (FSM) [5PM NOV 30: 4.6N 144.4E @ 130kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Upgraded to a Category 2 Typhoon...approaching Western Micronesia...about 493 km south-southeast of Colonia, Yap Is., FSM [5PM DEC 01: 5.7N 140.4E @ 160kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Nears Category 3 strength as it moves closer to Palau Islands...about 178 km east of Koror [5PM DEC 02: 7.1N 136.1E @ 175kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (West Pacific Ocean)...possible "Eye" may be forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (95-120 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across portions of Central Micronesia. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 350 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Bopha.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu November 29, 2012
Class/Name: TS Bopha (26W)
Location of Center: 3.9º N Lat 148.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 526 km (SW) away from Chuuk Is., FSM
Distance 2: 1,136 km (SSE) from Guam, CNMI
Distance 3: 1,316 km (SE) from Colonia, Yap
Distance 4: 1,510 km (E) from the P.A.R.
Distance 5: 1,605 km (ESE) from Koror, Palau
Distance 6: 2,463 km (ESE) from Mindanao, PH
Distance 7: 2,875 km (SE) from Bicol Region, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph
Present Movement: West @ 15 kph
Towards: Palau-Yap Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [350 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 19 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS BOPHA...go visit our website @:


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