WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (UNNAMED) UPDATE NUMBER 001
Issued: 11:55 AM PhT (03:55 GMT) Monday 26 Nov 2012
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Monday 26 Nov 2012
The strong disturbance (LPA) off the Eastern Micronesia, southwest of Pohnpei Island has strengthened into Tropical Depression 26W...threatens Central and Western Micronesia including Palau, Yap and the rest of the Caroline Islands...Rainbands spreading across Pohnpei and Kosrae Islands.
Residents and visitors along Micronesia, Marianas and the Philippnes should closely monitor the development of 26W.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 11 am today, the developing center of 26W was located over Eastern Micronesia...about 614 km southeast of Chuuk Islands, Micronesia or 3,312 km east-southeast of Mindanao, Philippines...currently moving northwest with a forward speed of 13 km/hr in the general direction of Micronesia-Caroline Islands.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 55 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. . The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of TD 26W is estimated to be heavy (200 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Tropical Depression 26W is expected to turn west-northwest during the next 24 hours...and this movement will continue through the next 72 hours (Thursday morning). On the forecast track, the core of 26W is expected to pass to the south of Chuuk Islands on Wednesday morning...and could continue towards Central Micronesia and the Caroline Islands thru Thursday.
TD 26W is expected to intensify during the next 24 to 48 hours...and could become a Tropical Storm later tonight or Tuesday morning. If the strengthening process continues, 26W should reach Typhoon intensity by Thursday early morning.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
TUESDAY MORNING: Turns to the west-northwest as it reaches Tropical Storm strength...about 370 km southeast of Chuuk Islands [11AM NOV 27: 5.3N 154.4E @ 75kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Maintains its movement...approaching typhoon intensity as it moves across Central Micronesia...about 137 km south-southwest of Chuuk Islands [11AM NOV 28: 6.2N 151.5E @ 100kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Attains typhoon status while moving west-northwest towards Western Micronesia and the Caroline Islands [11AM NOV 29: 6.8N 148.1E @ 130kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Eastern Micronesia particularly Pohnpei and Kosrae Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of 26W.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Mon November 26, 2012
Class/Name: TD 26W (Unnamed)
Location of Center: 4.3º N Lat 156.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 614 km (SE) closer to Chuuk Is., FSM
Distance 2: 1,633 km (SE) closer to Guam, CNMI
Distance 3: 2,100 km (ESE) closer to Yap Is., FSM
Distance 4: 2,372 km (E) closer to P.A.R.
Distance 5: 2,445 km (ESE) closer to Palau Is., FSM
Distance 6: 3,312 km (ESE) closer to Mindanao, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph
Present Movement: NW @ 13 kph
Towards: Micronesia-Caroline Islands
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [200 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): --- km [N/A]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 26W...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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