Thursday, November 29, 2012

TS BOPHA (26W) - Update #009


for Thursday, 29 November 2012 [7:19 AM PhT]


Issued: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Thursday 29 Nov 2012
Next Update: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Thursday 29 Nov 2012

Tropical Storm Bopha has turned slightly southward after passing south of Chuuk...nearing typhoon strength.

Residents and visitors along Micronesia, Marianas and the Philippines should closely monitor the development of Bopha (26W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 5 am today, the center of Tropical Storm Bopha was located over Central Micronesia...about 363 km south-southwest of Chuuk Islands, Micronesia or 2,662 km east-southeast of Mindanao, Philippines...currently moving west-southwest with a forward speed of 19 km/hr in the general direction of Yap and Palau Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 100 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 100 kilometers from the center. Bopha is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of TS Bopha is estimated to be heavy (350 mm).


Tropical Storm Bopha is expected to resume moving westward for the next 24 hours...with a west-northwest turn during the next 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to move across Central and Western Micronesia thru Saturday morning...approaching Yap and Palau Islands on Sunday morning.

Bopha is expected to intensify throughout the forecast period...and may become a Typhoon later today.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY MORNING: Becomes a typhoon as it moves across Central Micronesia...about 981 km south-southeast of Guam, CNMI [5AM NOV 30: 4.7N 146.3E @ 120kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Strengthens into a Category 2 Typhoon while moving closer to Western Micronesia...about 611 km southeast of Colonia, Yap Is., FSM [5AM DEC 01: 5.7N 142.1E @ 160kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Continues to strengthen as it passes over Western Micronesia...about 290 km south of Colonia, Yap Is., FSM [5AM DEC 02: 6.9N 138.3E @ 175kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (West Pacific Ocean)...possible "Eye" may be forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (100-130 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across portions of Eastern and Central Micronesia (including Chuuk Islands). Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 350 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Bopha.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu November 29, 2012
Class/Name: TS Bopha (26W)
Location of Center: 4.4º N Lat 150.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 363 km (SSW) away from Chuuk Is., FSM
Distance 2: 1,180 km (SSE) closer to Guam, CNMI
Distance 3: 1,480 km (SE) closer to Colonia, Yap
Distance 4: 1,718 km (E) closer to P.A.R.
Distance 5: 1,798 km (ESE) closer to Koror, Palau
Distance 6: 2,662 km (ESE) closer to Mindanao, PH
Distance 7: 3,165 km (SE) closer to Metro Naga, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph
Present Movement: WSW @ 19 kph
Towards: Yap-Palau Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [350 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS BOPHA...go visit our website @:


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