WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA UPDATE NUMBER 004
Issued: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Tuesday 27 Nov 2012
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tuesday 27 Nov 2012
Tropical Storm BOPHA drifting slowly across Eastern Micronesia...may threaten Yap, Ulithi and Palau Islands this weekend.
Residents and visitors along Micronesia, Marianas and the Philippines should closely monitor the development of Bopha (26W).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 11 am today, the center of Tropical Storm Bopha remains over Eastern Micronesia...about 530 km southeast of Chuuk Islands, Micronesia or 3,220 km east-southeast of Mindanao, Philippines...currently moving slowly west-northwest with a forward speed of 04 km/hr in the general direction of Micronesia-Caroline Islands.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 65 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. . Bopha is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of TS Bopha is estimated to be heavy (200 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Tropical Storm Bopha is expected to move slowly westward for the next 24 hours...with a slight acceleration through the next 48 to 72 hours (Thursday & Friday). On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to pass well to the south of Chuuk Islands on Wednesday evening...and should continue towards Central Micronesia and the Caroline Islands thru Friday morning.
Bopha is expected to intensify throughout the forecast period...and could become a Typhoon on Thursday morning.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Turns westward...continues to intensify while approaching Central Micronesia...about 323 km south-southeast of Chuuk Islands [11AM NOV 28: 4.8N 153.1E @ 95kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Upgraded to a Typhoon as it moves across Central Micronesia...about 376 km southwest of Chuuk Islands [11AM NOV 29: 5.0N 149.4E @ 120kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Continues to gain strength while moving towards Western Micronesia and the Caroline Islands...about 931 km south of Guam, CNMI [11AM NOV 30: 5.2N 145.9E @ 150kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Eastern Micronesia (Chuuk, Pohnpei and Kosrae Islands). Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Bopha.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tue November 27, 2012
Class/Name: TS Bopha (26W)
Location of Center: 4.5º N Lat 155.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 530 km (SE) closer to Chuuk Is., FSM
Distance 2: 1,544 km (SE) closer to Guam, CNMI
Distance 3: 2,009 km (ESE) closer to Yap Is., FSM
Distance 4: 2,283 km (E) closer to P.A.R.
Distance 5: 2,354 km (ESE) closer to Palau Is., FSM
Distance 6: 3,220 km (ESE) closer to Mindanao, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 04 kph
Towards: Micronesia-Caroline Islands
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [200 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS BOPHA...go visit our website @:
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