WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA UPDATE NUMBER 008
Issued: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wednesday 28 Nov 2012
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thursday 29 Nov 2012
Tropical Storm Bopha turns westward across Central Micronesia...will pass to the south of Chuuk Islands tonight.
Residents and visitors along Micronesia, Marianas and the Philippines should closely monitor the development of Bopha (26W).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 5 pm today, the center of Tropical Storm Bopha was located over Eastern and Central Micronesia...about 280 km south-southeast of Chuuk Islands, Micronesia or 2,885 km east-southeast of Mindanao, Philippines...currently moving westerly with a forward speed of 20 km/hr in the general direction of Yap and Palau Area.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 95 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 85 kilometers from the center. Bopha is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of TS Bopha is estimated to be extreme (450 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Tropical Storm Bopha is expected to move westward for the next 24 hours...with a slight west-northwest turn during the next 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to pass to the south of Chuuk Islands this evening...and should continue moving towards Central and Western Micronesia and the Caroline Islands thru Saturday afternoon.
Bopha is expected to continue intensifying throughout the forecast period...and may become a Typhoon by early Thursday.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a typhoon as it moves across Central Micronesia...about 433 km west-southwest of Chuuk Islands [5PM NOV 29: 5.3N 148.5E @ 120kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to gain strength while moving towards Western Micronesia...about 825 km south of Guam, CNMI [5PM NOV 30: 6.0N 144.3E @ 140kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens into a Category 2 typhoon...approaching Western Micronesia...about 346 km southeast of Yap Island [5PM DEC 01: 7.1N 140.1E @ 165kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (West Pacific Ocean)...possible "Eye" may be forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (95-120 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO). INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across portions of Eastern and Central Micronesia (including Chuuk Islands). Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 520 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Bopha.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed November 28, 2012
Class/Name: TS Bopha (26W)
Location of Center: 5.0º N Lat 152.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 280 km (SSE) closer to Chuuk Is., FSM
Distance 2: 1,266 km (SE) closer to Guam, CNMI
Distance 3: 1,675 km (ESE) closer to Yap Is., FSM
Distance 4: 1,950 km (E) closer to P.A.R.
Distance 5: 2,017 km (ESE) closer to Palau Is., FSM
Distance 6: 2,885 km (ESE) closer to Mindanao, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph
Present Movement: West @ 20 kph
Towards: Yap-Palau Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [450 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS BOPHA...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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