WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA UPDATE NUMBER 006
Issued: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wednesday 28 Nov 2012
Next Update: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Wednesday 28 Nov 2012
Tropical Storm Bopha has gained strength while moving slowly across Eastern Micronesia...may affect Palau, Ulithi and Yap Islands this weekend.
Residents and visitors along Micronesia, Marianas and the Philippines should closely monitor the development of Bopha (26W).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 5 am today, the center of Tropical Storm Bopha remains over Eastern Micronesia...about 448 km southeast of Chuuk Islands, Micronesia or 3,140 km east-southeast of Mindanao, Philippines...currently moving slowly west-northwest with a forward speed of 7 km/hr in the general direction of Yap-Ulithi-Palau Islands.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 85 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 75 kilometers from the center. Bopha is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of TS Bopha is estimated to be extreme (520 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Tropical Storm Bopha is expected to slightly turn westward for the next 24 hours...with a slightly faster forward speed through the next 48 to 72 hours (Friday & Saturday). On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to pass to the south of Chuuk Islands on Thursday evening...and should continue moving towards Central Micronesia and the Caroline Islands thru Saturday morning.
Bopha is expected to intensify throughout the forecast period...and could become a Typhoon on Thursday.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
THURSDAY MORNING: Almost a typhoon as it moves across Central Micronesia...about 232 km south-southeast of Chuuk Islands [5AM NOV 29: 5.4N 152.4E @ 110kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Upgraded to a typhoon as it accelerates slightly across Central Micronesia...about 437 km west-southwest of Chuuk Islands [5AM NOV 30: 6.0N 148.1E @ 140kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Approaching Palau and Yap Islands...strengthens to a Category 2 typhoon...about 678 km southeast of Yap Island [5AM DEC 01: 6.4N 143.4E @ 160kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Eastern Micronesia (Chuuk, Pohnpei and Kosrae Islands). Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 520 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Bopha.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed November 28, 2012
Class/Name: TS Bopha (26W)
Location of Center: 4.8º N Lat 154.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 448 km (SE) closer to Chuuk Is., FSM
Distance 2: 1,463 km (SE) closer to Guam, CNMI
Distance 3: 1,925 km (ESE) closer to Yap Is., FSM
Distance 4: 2,205 km (E) closer to P.A.R.
Distance 5: 2,272 km (ESE) closer to Palau Is., FSM
Distance 6: 3,140 km (ESE) closer to Mindanao, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 7 kph
Towards: Yap-Ulithi-Palau Islands
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [520 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS BOPHA...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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