Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Typhoon NIDA (26W) - Update #009

 


for Wednesday, 25 November 2009 [6:23 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon November 23 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly Advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY NIDA (27W).


NIDA (26W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 kph

TYPHOON NIDA [26W/0922]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Wed 25 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #012 & SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Typhoon NIDA (26W) intensifying...passing far south of Guam. Western Outer rainbands now spreading across Western Micronesia particularly Ulithi and Yap Islands.

    *Residents and visitors along Western Micronesia should closely monitor the progress of NIDA.

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Wed Nov 25 2009
    Location of Center: 10.3º N Lat 143.9º E Lon
    Distance 1: 360 km (195 nm) SSW of Guam, CNMI
    Distance 2: 640 km (345 nm) ENE of Yap, FSM
    Distance 3: 975 km (527 nm) East of P.A.R.
    Distance 4: 2,055 km (1,110 nm) East of Visayas, PH
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    140 kph (75 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm
    Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
    Present Movement: NW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
    Towards: Western Micronesia
    Size (in Diameter): 705 km (380 nm) / Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft (6.0 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public):
    2 AM PST Wed Nov 25

    + Forecast Outlook: NIDA is expected to continue moving WNW to NW-ward for the next 5 days as it intensifies. The 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system reaching Category 2 by early tomorrow morning (2am Nov 26: 13.3N 141.6E)...and at Category 3 by early Friday morning w/ winds of 185 kph (2am Nov 27: 15.9N 139.4E). NIDA will reach its maximum strength of 205 kph by early Saturday morning (2AM Nov 28: 17.5N 138.0E...about 1,660 km East of Northern Luzon), before losing strength on Sunday through Monday, as cool & dry air from the surge of Northeast Monsoon affects the typhoon (2AM Nov 29: 18.6N 137.0E...2AM Nov 30: 20.2N 136.1E). Based on this forecast, this system is not a threat to the Philippine Islands. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: NIDA is not yet affecting any major islands at this time, however, its western outer rainbands has begun to spread across Ulithi and Yap Islands (Western Micronesia). 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 200 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of Nida. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    External Links for TY NIDA (27W)

    View NOAA-CIRA's
    Latest Wind Analysis
    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart:
    wp2609.gif
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 25 NOVEMBER: 11.5N 143.0E / 140-165 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / NW @ 20 KPH 
    2 AM (18 GMT) 26 NOVEMBER: 13.3N 141.6E / 165-205 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / NW @ 17 KPH 
    2 AM (18 GMT) 27 NOVEMBER: 15.9N 139.4E / 185-230 KPH (TY-Cat 3) / NW @ 09 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 28 NOVEMBER: 17.5N 138.0E / 205-250 KPH (TY-Cat 3) / NW @ 07 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) WED 25 NOVEMBER POSITION: 9.9N 144.2E.

    *ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION
    WITH A 20NM EYE EVIDENT. A 241553Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS THE SMALL EYE
    WITH FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CORE CONVECTION AND A WEAK BANDING FEATURE OVER
    THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
    POSITION AND RECENT MOTION BASED ON THE EYE FIX. THE CURRENT
    INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND
    KNES; RJTD REMAINS LOWER AT 65 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO TRACK
    PHILOSOPHY WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
    THE PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
    SCENARIO THROUGH 72 HRS, BUT DIVERGES IN THE EXTENDED HOURS. THE
    UKMO, GFS AND NOGAPS INDICATE A WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TURN DUE
    TO RAPID WEAKENING DUE TO A NORTHEASTERLY COOL SURGE. THE TC-LAPS,
    JGSM, WBAR AND ECMWF TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW THE
    SYSTEM BY 96 HRS. BASED ON THE EXPECTED PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS
    AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE 25N WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
    TY 26W WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
    PERIOD AND RE-CURVE BUT SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY WITH THE REMNANTS
    EITHER TRACKING NORTHWARD OR, IF IT WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY, TRACKING
    SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...
    (
    more)

    >> NIDA, meaning: Name of womanName contributed by: Thailand.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
      
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TY NIDA (26W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

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