Sunday, November 22, 2009

TD 26W (UNNAMED) - Update #002

 


for Sunday, 22 November 2009 [5:40 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun November 22 2009):

Now issuing 6-hrly Advisories (except 12:00 AM) on the newly-formed TD 26W (UNNAMED), located SE of Guam.


26W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002

6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Sun 22 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #002 & SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Depression 26W (UNNAMED) strengthening southeast of Guam...may threaten Southern Marianas and Western Micronesia.

    *Residents and visitors along the Marianas and Western Micronesia should closely monitor the progress of 26W (UNNAMED).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    Current Storm Information


    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sun November 22 2009
    Location of Center: 7.5º N Lat 148.1º E Lon
    Distance 1: 750 km (405 nm) SSE of Guam, CNMI
    Distance 2: 1,135 km (613 nm) ESE of Yap, FSM
    Distance 3: 2,370 km (1,280 nm) East of Mindanao, PH
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    55 kph (30 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): N/A
    Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
    Present Movement: NW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
    Towards: Southern Marianas
    Size (in Diameter): ... km (... nm) / N/A
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public):
    2 PM PST Sun Nov 22

    + Forecast Outlook: 26W is expected to continue moving NW for the next 24 hours and intensify into a tropical storm. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system maintaining its NW path as it strengthens to a 100-kph storm on Tuesday afternoon [2pm Nov 24: 10.0N 145.8E]. 26W will become a Category 1 Typhoon on Wednesday afternoon...passing about 230 km WSW of Guam [2pm Nov 25: 11.7N 143.7E]...and turning more NNW on Thursday afternoon [2pm Nov 26: 14.0N 141.4E] while about 375 km WNW of Guam. 26W will reach Category 2 status on Friday afternoon [2pm Nov 27: 17.1N 139.7E] with winds of 165 kph...about 685 km NW of Guam. Based on this forecast, this system remains not a threat to the Philippines. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: 26W is not yet affecting any major islands at this time.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA)
    has drifted NW slowly while over the Southern Philippine Sea...currently located near lat 8.3N lon 128.2E...or about 335 km SE of Surigao City...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph near the center. This system will be closely monitored for possible development into a weak Tropical Cyclone within the next 12-24 hours.

    Kindly click the
    T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    External Links for TD 26W (Unnamed)

    View NOAA-CIRA's
    Latest Wind Analysis
    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart:
    wp2609.gif
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 AM (18 GMT) 23 NOVEMBER: 8.0N 148.1E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / NW @ 07 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 23 NOVEMBER: 8.6N 147.5E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / NW @ 09 KPH 
    2 PM (06 GMT) 24 NOVEMBER: 10.0N 145.8E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / NW @ 13 KPH
  • 2 PM (06 GMT) 25 NOVEMBER: 11.7N 143.7E / 120-150 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / NW @ 15 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) SUN 22 NOVEMBER POSITION: 7.5N 148.5E.

    *ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION
    HAS STARTED TO WRAP INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND
    WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM'S POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN
    UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS IMPROVED. ADDITIONALLY, UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDI-
    CATES THE SYSTEM HAS AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT AND IS IN AN AREA OF MINIMAL
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED
    BANDING AND THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW IS UP TO 30 KNOTS. TD 26W IS
    TRACKING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER COMPETING STEERING
    INFLUENCES AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DOING SO OVER THE NEXT 24-36
    HOURS. AFTER 48 HRS, THE STEERING INFLUENCE WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED
    (THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST) AS THE CYCLONE
    INTENSIFIES AND BUILDS VERTICALLY. ACCORDINGLY, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
    NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
    AND INTENSIFY TO TYPHOON STRENGTH DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
    AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...
    (
    more)


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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6-12 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP): Not Available Yet!!! 


    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD 26W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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