Sunday, November 01, 2009

TS MIRINAE (SANTI) - Update #018

 


for Sunday, 01 November 2009 [6:03 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun November 01 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly Advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS MIRINAE (SANTI).


MIRINAE (SANTI) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 kph

TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K ADVISORY NUMBER 018

6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Sun 01 November 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC SATFIX & WARNING #026
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm MIRINAE (SANTI) moving west across the South China Sea...may weaken soon.

    *Residents and visitors along Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE is expected to track WSW-ward while weakening further...it shall be approaching the coast of Vietnam w/in 24 hours. The 1-day Short-Range Forecast shows the system making landfall over Vietnam tomorrow afternoon...dissipating later in the evening. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects: MIRINAE's radial circulation continues to lose strength as dry air entrainment from a cold NE surge off China enters the system. This storm is no longer affecting any land areas. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 100 mm (heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    Tropical Disturbance 97W [LPA]
    continues to organize across Philippine Sea...currently located near lat 15.8N lon 129.6E...or about 805 km East of Casiguran, Aurora...920 km ENE of Metro Manila...730 km ENE of Naga City. It has 1-min. windspeeds of 35 kph near the center...moving West @ 20 kph towards Eastern Luzon. Rains can be expected from this system tomorrow across Eastern Luzon.

    Kindly click the
    T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sun November 01 2009
    Location of Center: 13.8º N Lat 113.7º E Lon
    Distance 1: 320 km (173 nm) NNW of Pagasa Island
    Distance 2: 515 km (278 nm) ENE of Nha Trang, Vietnam
    Distance 3: 800 km (432 nm) WSW of Metro Manila
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    75 kph (40 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
    Click to view:
    Mirinae's Latest Wind Analysis new!
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 100 mm
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: West @ 22 kph (12 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: Vietnam
    Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Sun Nov 01
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    2 PM Sun Nov 01
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Sun Nov 01
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1-day Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, & 36 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 AM (18 GMT) 02 NOVEMBER: 13.1N 111.7E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / WSW @ 24 KPH
  • 2 PM (00 GMT) 02 NOVEMBER: 12.5N 109.1E / 45-65 KPH (TD) / WSW @ 22 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 03 NOVEMBER: 11.9N 106.8E / 30-45 KPH (LPA) / --- @ -- KPH 

    REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) SUN 01 NOVEMBER POSITION: 13.7N 114.2E.
    *A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) HAS
    BEGUN TO FLARE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DVORAK
    ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD, AND A 312339Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE,
    INDICATE A 35 TO 45 KNOT SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY
    SOUTH OF WEST WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF
    INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRIER/COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A
    DEVELOPING COLD SURGE. LANDFALL WITH VIETNAM IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
    NEAR TAU 24. AFTER WHICH, THE LLCC WILL QUICKLY DEGRADE OVER LAND
    AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 (JUST TO THE NORTH OF HO CHI MINH)...
    (
    more)

    >> MIRINAE, meaning: Milky WayName contributed by: Korea.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

      
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6-12 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP): NEW!!! 


    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=TWENTYTHRE)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS MIRINAE (SANTI)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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