Tuesday, November 24, 2009

TD URDUJA (27W) weakens... [Update #005]

 


for Tuesday, 24 November 2009 [6:01 PM PST]

click to get RSS data
<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts on URDUJA!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to

2800 (Globe/TM) | Offline (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon November 23 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly Advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TD URDUJA (27W). Meanwhile, our SMS Updates for SMART (216) is currently OFFLINE due to technical problems. Synermaxx and SMART engineers are now fixing the problem which started a few days ago. Please bear with us.


URDUJA (27W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION URDUJA [27W]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005

6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Tue 24 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis & JTWC Warning #04/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Depression URDUJA (27W) losing organization and weakening...drifting southwest closer to Siargao Island. Rainbands still affecting Visayas and Northern Mindanao.

    *Residents and visitors along Eastern and Central Visayas should closely monitor the progress of URDUJA.

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Tue November 24 2009
    Location of Center: 9.8º N Lat 126.4º E Lon
    Distance 1: 45 km (25 nm) East of Siargao Island
    Distance 2: 100 km (55 nm) East of Surigao City
    Distance 3: 225 km (122 nm) SE of Tacloban City
    Distance 4: 240 km (130 nm) SE of Ormoc City
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    45 kph (25 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm
    Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
    Present Movement: SW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
    Towards: Surigao Provinces
    Size (in Diameter): 250 km (135 nm) / Small
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    T2K TrackMap #04 (for Public):
    6 PM PST Tue Nov 24

    + Forecast Outlook: URDUJA is expected to slow down and track SW to Southward into Surigao del Norte. The 1-day Short-Range Forecast shows the system moving overland across Surigao del Norte by tomorrow afternoon (2PM Nov 25: 9.5N 125.8E) and will dissipate into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA). Complete dissipation of this system is forecast by early Thursday morning while over the mountains of Agusan Del Norte. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: URDUJA's rainbands remain sheared to the west and continues to dump scattered to widespread rains across Northern Mindanao and the whole of the Visayas. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 up to 75 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer bands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (very heavy to extreme rain) off its inner bands especially over the islands of Leyte, Bohol, Cebu and Negros. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    In Effect: BOHOL, LEYTE PROVINCES, CAMOTES ISLAND, BILIRAN, EASTERN SAMAR, WESTERN SAMAR, SURIGAO PROVINCES, AGUSAN DEL NORTE, DINAGAT ISLAND, SIARGAO ISLAND, & CAMIGUIN ISLAND.

    The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 55 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

    Residents living along river banks, low-lying and mountainous areas which are under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

    External Links for TD URDUJA (27W)

    View NOAA-CIRA's
    Latest Wind Analysis
    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart:
    wp9309.gif
    Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time


  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24 & 36 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 AM (18 GMT) 25 NOVEMBER: 9.9N 126.2E / 45-65 KPH (TD) / SSW @ 05 KPH
  • 2 PM (00 GMT) 25 NOVEMBER: 9.5N 125.8E / 35-55 KPH (LPA) / S @ 07 KPH 
    2 AM (18 GMT) 26 NOVEMBER: 8.8N 125.7E / 35-55 KPH (LPA) / ... @ .. KPH 

    REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) TUE 24 NOVEMBER POSITION: 10.0N 126.7E.
    *ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
    SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
    CONVECTION SHEARED 120 NM TO THE WEST. IN THE PAST SIX HOURS THE
    LLCC HAS STARTED TO INCREASE SPEED TOWARDS MINDANAO AND IS CURRENTLY
    BEING STEERED AT THE LOWER LEVELS. MSI ALSO SHOWS THE LLCC IS
    BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED, THUS THE DECREASE IN INTENSITY FROM THE
    PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A STRONGER
    SYSTEM THAT WRAPS SOUTHWARD AND BACK TO THE NORTHEAST, HOWEVER,
    BASED ON THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND AND TRACK, THIS SCENARIO SEEMS
    LESS LIKELY AS TD 27W APPROACHES MINDANAO. LANDFALL OVER MINDANAO IS
    EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE LLCC TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY TAU 36...
    (
    more)

    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
     
    > 4 PM (08 GMT) 24 NOVEMBER: 10.1N 125.6E / East Slowly / 55 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):


    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=27W)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD URDUJA (27W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


    Copyright © 2009 Typhoon2000.com     All Rights Reserved

    __._,_.___
    .

    __,_._,___

    No comments: