Sunday, November 01, 2009

TS MIRINAE (SANTI) - Update #017

 


for Sunday, 01 October 2009 [5:27 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun November 01 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly Advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS MIRINAE (SANTI).


MIRINAE (SANTI) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph

TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K ADVISORY NUMBER 017

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Sun 01 November 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC SATFIX & WARNING #024
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm MIRINAE (SANTI) weakens as strong NE cold surge off China brings dry air into its circulation...will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) today...All Philippine Storm Signals are now lowered by PAGASA.

    *Residents and visitors along Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE is expected to continue tracking westward as it weakens further...it shall be approaching the coast of Vietnam in 24 hours. The 1-day Short-Range Forecast shows the system making landfall over Vietnam tomorrow morning...dissipating later in the afternoon. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects: MIRINAE's radial circulation continues to lose strength as dry air entrainment from a cold NE surge off China enters the system. This storm is no longer affecting any land areas. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 80 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 125 mm (heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    Tropical Disturbance 97W [LPA]
    a new one over the Philippine Sea east of Luzon is slowly organizing...currently located near lat 15.5N lon 131.8E...or about 845 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes...1,155 km East of Metro Manila ...950 km ENE of Naga City. It has 1-min. windspeeds of 30 kph near the center...moving westward slowly.

    Kindly click the T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sun November 01 2009
    Location of Center: 14.2º N Lat 115.6º E Lon
    Distance 1: 510 km (275 nm) WSW of Subic/Olongapo City
    Distance 2: 575 km (310 nm) WNW of Puerto Galera
    Distance 3: 595 km (322 nm) West of Metro Manila
    Distance 4: 820 km (443 nm) ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    85 kph (45 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
    Click to view:
    Mirinae's Latest Wind Analysis new!
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 125 mm
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: West @ 28 kph (15 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: Vietnam
    Size (in Diameter): 520 km (280 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
    T2K Final TrackMap #08 (for Public): 6 AM PST Sun Nov 01
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    2 AM Sun Nov 01
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sun Nov 01
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1-day Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, & 36 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 01 NOVEMBER: 13.8N 113.5E / 75-95 KPH (TS) / W @ 24 KPH
  • 2 AM (00 GMT) 02 NOVEMBER: 13.3N 110.9E / 75-95 KPH (TS) / WSW @ 26 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 02 NOVEMBER: 12.6N 108.2E / 35-55 KPH (LPA) / --- @ -- KPH 

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) SUN 02 NOVEMBER POSITION: 14.1N 116.2E.
    *ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
    THAT CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
    ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MIRINAE. A 311059Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED
    THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MAINTAINED A
    SYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE WITH UNFLAGGED 45 KNOT WINDS PRESENT. THE
    STRONG NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE FROM THE NORTHEAST IS ALSO READILY
    APPARENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF TS 23W, AND IS EXPECTED TO
    CONTINUE WEAKENING THE LLCC WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASING
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
    THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
    TOWARDS CENTRAL VIETNAM, STEADILY WEAKENING. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO
    OCCUR AROUND TAU 30 WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 36...
    (
    more)

    >> MIRINAE, meaning: Milky WayName contributed by: Korea.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
    > 4 AM (20 GMT) 01 NOVEMBER: 14.0N 116.4E / WEST @ 22 kph / 85 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6-12 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP): NEW!!! 


    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=TWENTYTHRE)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS MIRINAE (SANTI)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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