Saturday, June 20, 2009

Typhoon LINFA (03W) endangers Fujian-Taiwan Strait... [Update #008]




for Saturday, 20 June 2009 [1:10 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu June 18 2009):

Currently issuing 6-HOURLY UPDATES (except 12 Midnight) ON TY LINFA (03W)


LINFA (03W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr

TYPHOON LINFA (03W/0903)
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009

As of 12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Sat 20 June 2009
Source: JTWC WARNING #012 (US Navy/Air Force) / T2K XTRAPOLATION
  • LINFA (03W) becomes the 3rd Typhoon of the 2009 Season...11AM satellite analysis, reveals a newly-formed ragged Eye - using Dvorak Classification Technique T-number of 4.5 to justify the upgrading of this system...now increases its threat to Fujian Province of China and the Strait of Taiwan.

    *Residents and visitors along Southeastern China and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LINFA.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: LINFA is expected to accelerate North to NNE for the next 2 days and shall reach its peak strength later tonight before it weakens slowly. The 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LINFA passing in between Fujian Province and Taiwan or across the Strait of Taiwan tomorrow morning, June 21. It shall further accelerate across the East China Sea on Monday June 22, before zooming across the NW Pacific or to the south of Kyuhsu, Shikoku and Honshu in Japan on Wednesday & Thursday (June 23-24). LINFA is expected to become Extratropical on Thursday or Friday (June 24-25).

    + Effects: LINFA's circulation remains over the northern part of South China Sea. However, its Northern Outer bands is likely to reach the Western part of Taiwan and the coastal areas of Fujian Province of China later tonight. Increasing winds of up to 60 kph with light to moderate rains can be expected along these bands. Deteriorating weather conditions can be expected along SE China and Western Taiwan tomorrow as the typhoon approaches.

    + Current Monsoon Intensity: Weak Southwest (SW) Monsoon currently being enhanced by LINFA is affecting Northwestern Luzon...becoming more intense along Ilocos Provinces. Cloudy skies with passing drizzle to occasional rains and thunderstorms/squalls with SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr can be expected today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA) remains drifting across Micronesia to the south of Guam...located near lat 8.9N lon 146.8E...or about 545 km SSE of Hagatna, Guam...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...currently moving WNW slowly.

    This system will be closely monitored for possible development into significant Tropical Cyclone within the next few days.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Sat June 20 2009
    Location of Center: 20.6º N Lat 117.3º E Lon
    Distance 1: 370 km (200 nm) ESE of Hong Kong
    Distance 2: 315 km (170 nm) SSE of Shantou, China
    Distance 3: 435 km (235 nm) NW of Laoag City
    Distance 4: 380 km (205 nm) SW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
    Distance 5: 490 km (265 nm) West of Basco, Batanes
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    120 kph (65 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
    Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: North @ 11 kph (06 kts)
    General Direction: Fujian-Taiwan Strait Area
    Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Sat June 20
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    00Z Sat June 20
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Sat June 20
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
    8 PM (12 GMT) 20 JUNE: 21.3N 117.6E / 120-150 KPH / NNE @ 15 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 21 JUNE: 22.7N 118.3E / 110-140 KPH / NNE @ 17 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 22 JUNE: 25.6N 120.3E / 85-100 KPH / NE @ 20 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 23 JUNE: 28.0N 124.4E / 65-85 KPH / ENE @ 30 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 20 JUNE POSITION: 20.2N 117.2E.
    ^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (LINFA) HAS SLOWLY INCREASED ITS
    INTENSITY TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
    IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD AND KNES ALONG WITH A
    192126Z 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWING A MICROWAVE EYE-LIKE FEATURE. ANIMATED
    WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
    POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS ALSO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED WITH AN OUTFLOW
    CHANNEL THAT IS ALLOWING DEEP CONVECTION TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN
    PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM CAUSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE TS
    THAT HAS BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. TS 03W HAS
    STEADILY DRIFTED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
    RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST
    ...(
    more)

    >> LINFA, meaning: LotusName contributed by: Macau.

    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
     
    > 2 AM (18 GMT) 20 JUNE: 19.8N 116.9E / NNE @ 11 kph / 95 kph [Outside PAR]

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION
    :


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTES:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
     
      * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
          signals, visit:
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

     ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near its center.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TY LINFA (03W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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