Thursday, June 25, 2009

TS NANGKA (FERIA) - Update #011




for Thursday, 25 June 2009 [1:29 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu June 25 2009):

Just uploaded the T2K 12PM Track Chart on NANGKA...Still issuing 6-hrly SMS updates & 6-hrly web (pop-up) advisories.


NANGKA (FERIA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA [FERIA/04W/0904]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 011

As of 12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Thu 25 June 2009
Source: JTWC WARNING #011 (US Navy/Air Force) / T2K XTRAPOLATION

  • Tropical Storm NANGKA (FERIA) has regained back its strength to 85 kph...accelerating away from Western Luzon. SW Monsoon currently being activated.

    *Residents and visitors along Western Luzon, Southern China and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of NANGKA.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook:  NANGKA is expected to turn NNW into the open waters of the South China Sea and intensify. The 2 to 4-day Long-Range Forecast shows NANGKA reaching peak forecast winds of 110 kph on Saturday morning, June 27 - while near the coast of Fujian Province in China. By then, NANGKA shall start to recurve and accelerate towards the NNE to NE beginning Saturday afternoon and shall move across Taiwan Strait on Saturday evening, passing very close to Taipei around 5 AM Sunday June 28 w/ a distance of just 75 km. to the NNW. Upon its close passage over Taiwan, NANGKA shall be an Extratropical Cyclone.

    + EffectsNANGKA's circulation continues to reorganize over the South China Sea or west of Pangasinan. Its inner bands is now at sea barely affecting the coast of Luzon...Winds of up to 85 kph with moderate to heavy rains can be expected along the inner bands especially along the core or central-dense overcast (CDO) of the system. While, the outer bands of NANGKA together w/ the SW Monsoon continues to affect parts of Southern Tagalog including Metro Manila, Calamian Group & rest of Mindoro Island. Light to moderate rains with winds & squalls plus thunderstorms can be expected along the outer bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 150 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity:  MODERATE  >> Cloudy skies w/ occasional rains & some passing thunderstorms w/ squalls. Moderate to slightly strong SW winds not exceeding 45 kph can be expected over the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, WESTERN BICOL, PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, WESTERN VISAYAS & MINDORO.  Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Thu June 25 2009
    Location of Center: 15.7º N Lat 118.3º E Lon
    Distance 1: 215 km (115 nm) WSW of Dagupan City
    Distance 2: 235 km (127 nm) WSW of San Fernando City
    Distance 3: 320 km (172 nm) NW of Manila
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    85 kph (45 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: NW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
    General Direction: South China Sea
    Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
    T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12 PM PST Thu June 25
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    00Z Thu June 25
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Thu June 25
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    In Effect: NORTHERN MINDORO, LUBANG ISLAND, BATANGAS, BATAAN, ZAMBALES & WESTERN PANGASINAN.

    The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

    Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

    12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
    8 PM (12 GMT) 25 JUNE: 17.4N 118.1E / 85-100 KPH / NNW @ 20 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 26 JUNE: 19.5N 117.7E / 95-120 KPH / N @ 19 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 27 JUNE: 22.9N 118.1E / 110-140 KPH / NE @ 20 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 28 JUNE: 26.1N 121.5E / 85-100 KPH / NE @ 28 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 25 JUNE POSITION: 15.1N 118.8E.
    ^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (NANGKA) CONTINUED TO TRACK TO THE
    NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    WEST OF LUZON. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
    12 HOURS WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND LINGERING INTERACTION
    FROM LAND AS THE PRIMARY LIMITING CAUSE. INTENSITY IS BASED ON
    ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
    CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
    CENTER (LLCC). POORLY DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING IS SEEN WRAPPING
    AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK AND INTO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER.
    POSITION CONFIDENCE IS GOOD DUE TO PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC.
    SCATTEROMETER AND MICROWAVE DATA WERE MISSES FOR THE LAST EIGHT
    HOURS, BUT A 250245Z WINDSAT PASS WHERE THE RETURNS WERE RAIN
    FLAGGED INDICATES THE LLCC IS OVER WATER.
    ..(
    more)

    >> NANGKA, meaning: JackFruitName contributed by: Malaysia.
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
     
    > 10 AM (02 GMT) 25 JUNE: 15.4N 118.4E / NW @ 17 kph / 65 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION
    :


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS NANGKA (FERIA)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


    Copyright © 2009 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved

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