Friday, June 26, 2009

TS NANGKA (FERIA) threatens Southern China... [Update #013]




for Friday, 26 June 2009 [9:38 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri June 26 2009):

The Final T2K Track Map on NANGKA now available...Just added T2K ADVISORY ARCHIVES link, located just below the T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY header.


NANGKA (FERIA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 70 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA [FERIA/04W/0904]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 013

As of 6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Fri 26 June 2009
Source: JTWC WARNING #014 / T2K ANALYSIS
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm NANGKA (FERIA) has moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while heading NW in the direction of Southern China.

    *Residents and visitors along Southern China should closely monitor the progress of NANGKA.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast OutlookNANGKA is expected to turn to the north and shall make landfall off Southern China near the Guangdong-Fujian border early tomorrow morning. After landfall, NANGKA shall recurve to the NE and dissipate along the rugged terrain of Fujian Province on Sunday, June 28.

    + Effects: NANGKA's circulation has slightly improved over the South China Sea but is partially exposed with most of its rain-cloud convection south of the center. The moderate to slightly high vertical wind shear (upper level winds) over the South China remains one of the inhibiting factors on NANGKA's development.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: WEAK >> Partly Cloudy skies w/ light occasional rains & some passing thunderstorms w/ squall plus light to moderate SW winds not exceeding 40 kph can be expected over the following affected areas: MINDORO & WESTERN LUZON.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 


    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Fri June 26 2009
    Location of Center: 18.9º N Lat 116.3º E Lon
    Distance 1: 400 km (248 nm) WNW of Laoag City
    Distance 2: 425 km (230 nm) SE of Hong Kong
    Distance 3: 500 km (270 nm) SSW of Shantou, China
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    75 kph (40 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: NW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
    General Direction: Southern China
    Size (in Diameter): 465 km (250 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
    T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 AM PST Fri June 26 [FINAL]
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    18Z Thu June 25
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Fri June 26
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 48 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    12, 24, & 48 HR. FORECAST:
    2 PM (06 GMT) 26 JUNE: 20.9N 116.1E / 75-95 KPH / N @ 22 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 27 JUNE: 23.2N 116.0E / 75-95 KPH / NNE @ 19 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 28 JUNE: 26.7N 118.2E / 30-45 KPH / NE @ 20 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 26 JUNE POSITION: 18.6N 116.8E.
    ^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (NANGKA) CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
    NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
    (STR) EAST OF LUZON. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE
    LAST 12 HOURS WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AS THE PRIMARY
    LIMITING CAUSE. INTENSITY IS BASED ON ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND
    RJTD. A 252140Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTION ONLY OVER
    THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF AN INCREASINGLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)...
    (
    more)

    >> NANGKA, meaning: JackFruitName contributed by: Malaysia.
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
     
    > 4 AM (20 GMT) 26 JUNE: 18.7N 116.9E / NNW @ 19 kph / 65 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION
    :


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS NANGKA (FERIA)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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