Thursday, June 25, 2009

TS NANGKA (FERIA) - Update #010




for Thursday, 25 June 2009 [9:09 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu June 25 2009):

Just uploaded the T2K 6AM Track Chart on NANGKA...Currently issuing 6-hrly SMS updates & 6-hrly web (pop-up) advisories.


NANGKA (FERIA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 70 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA [FERIA/04W/0904]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 010

As of 6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Thu 25 June 2009
Source: JTWC WARNING #010 (US Navy/Air Force) / T2K XTRAPOLATION

  • Tropical Storm NANGKA (FERIA) re-organizing over the South China Sea, just west of Manila...threat to Western Luzon decreases.

    *Residents and visitors along Western Luzon, Southern China and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of NANGKA.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: NANGKA is expected to turn NW into the open waters of the South China Sea and re-intensify. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows NANGKA turning more to the NNW across the South China Sea later today and turn more northerly on Friday June 26, reaching peak forecast winds of 110 kph on Saturday, June 27. NANGKA shall start to recurve towards the NNE beginning Saturday and shall move across Taiwan Strait on Saturday evening, passing very close to Taipei around 10 PM (distance of just 50 km. to the NNW). It shall accelerate past the East China Sea Sunday evening (June 28) & shall start to transform into an Extratropical Cyclone on Monday evening, June 29 as it enters the Sea of Japan.

    + Effects: NANGKA's circulation has started to re-organize just of west of Manila. Its inner bands continue to spread across Western Mindoro & Lubang Island...Winds of up to 85 kph with moderate to heavy rains can be expected along the inner bands especially along the core or central-dense overcast (CDO) of the system. Meanwhile, the outer bands of NANGKA continues to affect parts of Southern Tagalog including Metro Manila, Calamian Group & rest of Mindoro Island. Light to moderate rains with winds & squalls plus thunderstorms can be expected along the outer bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 150 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center. Improving weather can be expected across Southern Quezon, Bicol and Eastern Visayas as the storm moves farther away. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    + Current Monsoon Intensity: Southwest (SW) Monsoon currently being enhanced by NANGKA continues to Palawan, Cuyo Is., Sulu Sea and Western Visayas. Cloudy skies with occasional rains and thunderstorms/squalls and SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr can be expected today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
     

    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Thu June 25 2009
    Location of Center: 14.4º N Lat 119.0º E Lon
    Distance 1: 145 km (78 nm) SW of Subic/Olongapo
    Distance 2: 170 km (92 nm) West of Corregidor Island
    Distance 3: 205 km (110 nm) West of Tagaytay
    Distance 4: 215 km (115 nm) West of Manila
    Distance 5: 230 km (125 nm) WNW of Puerto Galera
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    75 kph (40 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WNW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
    General Direction: South China Sea
    Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
    T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 AM PST Thu June 25
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    18Z Wed June 24
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Thu June 25
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    In Effect: METRO MANILA, CAVITE, ZAMBALES, BATAAN, BATANGAS, NORTHERN MINDORO, & LUBANG ISLAND.

    The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

    Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

    12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
    2 PM (06 GMT) 25 JUNE: 16.2N 118.5E / 85-100 KPH / NNW @ 19 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 26 JUNE: 18.2N 118.0E / 95-120 KPH / N @ 19 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 27 JUNE: 22.2N 118.2E / 110-140 KPH / NE @ 24 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 28 JUNE: 26.2N 121.9E / 95-120 KPH / NE @ 31 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 25 JUNE POSITION: 14.4N 119.3E.
    ^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (NANGKA) CONTINUED TO TRACK TO THE
    WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
    (STR) EAST OF LUZON. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST
    12 HOURS WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND INTERACTION FROM LAND
    AS THE PRIMARY CAUSES. INTENSITY IS BASED ON ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
    RJTD. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW
    LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. POORLY
    DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING IS SEEN WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
    FLANK AND INTO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER. POSITION CONFIDENCE
    IS LOW DUE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS ON THE SHAPE OF THE CONVECTION AND
    THE SHAPE OF THE SYSTEM. SCATTEROMETER AND MICROWAVE DATA IS
    CURRENTLY CONTAMINATED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND..
    ...(
    more)

    >> NANGKA, meaning: JackFruitName contributed by: Malaysia.
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
     
    > 4 AM (20 GMT) 25 JUNE: 14.4N 119.2E / WNW @ 15 kph / 55 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION
    :


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS NANGKA (FERIA)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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