Tuesday, June 23, 2009

TD 04W (FERIA) approaching Samar-Leyte...[Update #003]




for Tuesday, 23 June 2009 [7:43 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon June 22 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories on Tropical Depression 04W as it heads towards Samar-Bicol Area.


04W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FERIA)
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 003

As of 6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Tue 23 June 2009
Source: JTWC WARNING #002 (US Navy/Air Force) / T2K XTRAPOLATION
  • Tropical Depression 04W (FERIA) still accelerating Westward...now threatens Samar, Leyte and Masbate area.

    *Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress of 04W.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: 04W shall start to turn more WNW and slowly intensify into a Tropical Storm. The 2-day Medium Range Forecast shows 04W making landfall over Samar or Leyte this afternoon and cross either Masbate or Sorsogon early tomorrow morning (around 2 AM).

    + Effects: 04W's small circulation continues intensify. Rain bands spreading across Samar, Leyte, parts of Visayas and Northern Mindanao...Winds of up to 55 kph with light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains can be expected along these bands. Rain bands may reach Southern Bicol later this afternoon. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 150 mm can be expected along the disturbance's rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Tue June 23 2009
    Location of Center: 11.0º N Lat 126.9º E Lon
    Distance 1: 175 km (95 nm) ESE of Borongan, E.Samar
    Distance 2: 210 km (188 nm) East of Tacloban City
    Distance 3: 405 km (220 nm) SE of Virac, Catanduanes
    Distance 4: 420 km (225 nm) SE of Legazpi City
    Distance 5: 380 km (205 nm) ESE of Masbate
    Distance 6: 460 km (260 nm) SE of Gota Beach
    Distance 7: 495 km (267 nm) SE of Metro Naga/CWC
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    55 kph (30 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Disturbance
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-0 feet [0-0.0 m]
    Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: West @ 33 kph (18 kts)
    General Direction: Samar-Leyte Area
    Size (in Diameter): 250 km (135 nm) / Small
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
    T2K TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Tue June 23
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    18Z Mon June 22
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    Now In Effect: Samar Provinces, Leyte Provinces, Camotes Is., Biliran Is., Northern Cebu, Bohol, Dinagat Is., Siargao, Surigao del Norte.

    The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

    Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

    12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
    2 PM (06 GMT) 23 JUNE: 11.8N 125.9E / 75-95 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH
  • 2 AM (06 GMT) 24 JUNE: 12.9N 124.1E / 95-120 KPH / NW @ 19 KPH
    2 AM (06 GMT) 25 JUNE: 15.6N 121.1E / 100-130 KPH / NNW @ 19 KPH
    2 AM (06 GMT) 26 JUNE: 19.3N 120.1E / 65-85 KPH / NE @ 24 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 23 JUNE POSITION: 11.1N 128.0E.
    ^TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W (FOUR) REACHED WARNING CRITERIA
    AT 221200Z. A 220947Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE SUPPORTS A 25 KNOT CYCLONIC
    CIRCULATION, WITH ALL AGENCIES RETURNING DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
    ESTIMATES OF 1.5 (25 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE
    BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER, AS EVIDENT IN ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
    IMAGERY AND A 221035Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
    ...(
    more)
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
     
    > 4 AM (20 GMT) 23 JUNE: 10.9N 127.3E / WNW @ 15 kph / 55 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION
    :


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD 04W (FERIA)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


    Copyright © 2009 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved

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