Thursday, June 25, 2009

TS NANGKA (FERIA) - Update #012




for Thursday, 25 June 2009 [7:48 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu June 25 2009):

T2K 6 PM Track Chart on NANGKA (FERIA) now available...Just added T2K ADVISORY ARCHIVES link, located just below the T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY header.


NANGKA (FERIA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA [FERIA/04W/0904]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 012

As of 6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Thu 25 June 2009
Source: JTWC WARNING #012 / T2K ANALYSIS
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm NANGKA (FERIA) speeds up across the South China Sea on a NNW track...no change in strength.

    *Residents and visitors along Southern China and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of NANGKA.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: NANGKA's forecast has changed, showing a landfall off Southern China along Guangdong-Fujian border. It is expected to continue moving NNW across the South China Sea and slightly intensify within the next 24 hours. The 3-day Medium-Range Forecast shows NANGKA reaching peak forecast winds of 95 kph tomorrow afternoon and heading more to the North. NANGKA shall reach the coast of Southern China on Saturday morning...and make landfall Saturday afternoon. The system shall dissipate off Fujian Province on Sunday afternoon, June 28th.

    + Effects: NANGKA's circulation has shown difficulty reorganizing over the South China Sea - due to increasing vertical wind shear (upper level winds) along the area. Its outer bands together w/ the SW Monsoon continues to affect parts of Western Luzon including Metro Manila, Calamian Group & rest of Mindoro Island. Light to moderate rains with winds & squalls plus thunderstorms can be expected along the outer bands.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Cloudy skies w/ occasional rains & some passing thunderstorms w/ squalls. Moderate to slightly strong SW winds not exceeding 45 kph can be expected over the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, WESTERN BICOL, PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, WESTERN VISAYAS & MINDORO. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Thu June 25 2009
    Location of Center: 17.1º N Lat 117.6º E Lon
    Distance 1: 300 km (162 nm) WSW of Vigan City
    Distance 2: 295 km (160 nm) WSW of San Fernando City
    Distance 3: 465 km (250 nm) NW of Manila
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    85 kph (45 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: NNW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
    General Direction: Southern China
    Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
    T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM PST Thu June 25
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    06Z Thu June 25
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Thu June 25
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    In Effect: ZAMBALES & WESTERN PANGASINAN.

    The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

    Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

    12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
    2 AM (18 GMT) 26 JUNE: 18.1N 117.4E / 85-100 KPH / NNW @ 20 KPH
  • 2 PM (06 GMT) 26 JUNE: 20.2N 116.7E / 95-120 KPH / N @ 20 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 27 JUNE: 24.1N 117.5E / 85-100 KPH / NE @ 20 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 28 JUNE: 27.4N 120.4E / 35-55 KPH / -- @ -- KPH

    REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 25 JUNE POSITION: 16.1N 118.4E.
    ^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (NANGKA) CONTINUED TO TRACK TO THE
    NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    WEST OF LUZON. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
    12 HOURS WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND LINGERING INTERACTION
    FROM LAND AS THE PRIMARY LIMITING CAUSE. INTENSITY IS BASED ON
    ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
    CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
    CENTER (LLCC). POORLY DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING IS SEEN WRAPPING
    AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK AND INTO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER.
    POSITION CONFIDENCE IS GOOD DUE TO PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC.
    SCATTEROMETER AND MICROWAVE DATA WERE MISSES FOR THE LAST EIGHT
    HOURS, BUT A 250245Z WINDSAT PASS WHERE THE RETURNS WERE RAIN
    FLAGGED INDICATES THE LLCC IS OVER WATER.
    ..(
    more)

    >> NANGKA, meaning: JackFruitName contributed by: Malaysia.
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
     
    > 4 PM (08 GMT) 25 JUNE: 16.9N 118.2E / NNW @ 20 kph / 65 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION
    :


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS NANGKA (FERIA)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


    Copyright © 2009 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved

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