Thursday, June 18, 2009

TS 03W (UNNAMED) - Update #002




for Thursday, 18 June 2009 [12:52 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed June 17 2009):

There will be no 12AM updates for active tropical cyclones when it is not yet a threat to any landmass. Updates will only be issued at 6AM, 12PM and 6PM respectively. However, the links into various typhoon agencies except T2K are 100% updated. The reason for this is that I also need to rest and have some sleep. Please bear with me.


03W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM 03W (UNNAMED)
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003

As of 12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Thu 18 June 2009
Source: JTWC WARNING #004 (US Navy/Air Force) / T2K XTRAPOLATION
  • Tropical Storm 03W (UNNAMED) gaining strength as it drifts Eastward during the past 6 hours...may affect Extreme Northern Luzon through the weekend.

    *Residents and visitors along Ilocos Norte, Abra, Northern Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan Group, Hong Kong and Southern Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of 03W.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: 03W is expected to drift ENE w/in the next 24 hours and accelerate, reaching its peak strength of 100 kph on Saturday. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows 03W maintaining its intensity as it passes over the Batanes and Calayan Group of Islands, in between Luzon & Taiwan by Saturday evening, June 20th. It shall then weaken into a Tropical Depression as it approaches the Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands by Monday evening, June 22nd.

    + Effects: 03W's main circulation has started to improve and grow, as it remains over the northern part of South China Sea. Its circulation is not yet affecting any land areas at this time.

    + Current Monsoon Intensity: Southwest (SW) Monsoon currently being enhanced by 03W continues to affect Luzon and Western Visayas including the Bicol Region...becoming more intense along the western parts of Luzon including Metro Manila & Mindoro. Cloudy skies with passing drizzle to occasional rains and thunderstorms/squalls with SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr can be expected today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA) currently east of Extreme Northern Luzon...located near lat 25.5N lon 125.0E...about 310 km East of Basco, Batanes...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph...currently moving North @ 20 kph.

    This system will be closely monitored for possible development into significant Tropical Cyclone.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Thu June 18 2009
    Location of Center: 17.9º N Lat 116.6º E Lon
    Distance 1: 405 km (220 nm) WNW of Vigan City
    Distance 2: 425 km (230 nm) WSW of Laoag City
    Distance 3: 550 km (297 nm) SSE of Hong Kong
    Distance 4: 620 km (335 nm) WSW of Basco, Batanes
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    75 kph (40 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: East @ 04 kph (02 kts)
    General Direction: Extreme Northern Luzon
    Size (in Diameter): ... km (... nm) / N/A
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft (3.3 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Thu June 18
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    00Z Thu June 18
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
    8 PM (12 GMT) 18 JUNE: 18.3N 117.1E / 75-95 KPH / ENE @ 07 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 19 JUNE: 18.6N 117.8E / 85-100 KPH / ENE @ 11 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 20 JUNE: 19.8N 120.1E / 100-130 KPH / ENE @ 13 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 21 JUNE: 21.3N 122.7E / 75-95 KPH / NE @ 22 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 18 JUNE POSITION: 18.1N 116.8E.
    ^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W HAS INTENSIFIED TO 40 KTS AS IS EVIDENT
    FROM A 17/2233Z QUIKSCAT PASS. OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS, A WELL
    DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) HAS DEVELOPED OVER
    THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TS 03W IS IN A WEAK STEERING
    ENVIRONMENT AND HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY
    ...
    (
    more)
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
     
    > 10 AM (02 GMT) 18 JUNE: XX.XN XXX.XE / XXX @ XX KPH / XX kph - NO DATA

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION
    :


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTES:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
     
      * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
          signals, visit:
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

     ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near its center.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS 03W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


    Copyright © 2009 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved

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