Wednesday, June 24, 2009

TS NANGKA (FERIA) threatens Southern Tagalog including Metro Manila...[Update #007]




for Wednesday, 24 June 2009 [12:52 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue June 23 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories on TS NANGKA (FERIA).


NANGKA (FERIA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA [FERIA/04W/0904]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 007

As of 12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Thu 25 June 2009
Source: JTWC WARNING #007 (US Navy/Air Force) / T2K XTRAPOLATION

  • Tropical Storm NANGKA (FERIA) has tracked NW over the past 3 hours and is now off the NE Coast of Mindoro...now endangers Puerto Galera-Batangas-Tagaytay-Metro Manila Area...Its small circulation is now lashing Northern Mindoro and Marinduque including the coasts of Batangas & Southern Quezon.

    *Residents and visitors along Southern Tagalog Provinces, Mindoro, Metro Manila and SW Luzon should closely monitor the progress of NANGKA.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: NANGKA is expected to track WNW to NW and pass over Mindoro Strait around 2-3PM this afternoon and shall pass along the coasts of Batangas and Cavite early tonight. The 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows NANGKA turning to the NNW passing along the west coast of Luzon early tomorrow until tomorrow afternoon, passing close to the provinces of Zambales, Bataan and Pangasinan. It shall move into South China Sea on Thursday evening reaching its peak forecast winds of 110 kph. NANGKA shall start to recurve towards the NNE to NE by Saturday June 27 and pass along Taiwan Strait as a weakening system on Sunday, June 28. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There's a possibility that NANGKA shall track more to the North and pass over Metro Manila tonight. This scenario is likely if the High Pressure Ridge off Northern Luzon weakens and allow NANGKA to move up.

    + Effects: NANGKA's main core remains small while moving across the NE coast of Mindoro. Its inner bands continue to spread across Romblon, Mindoro, Marinduque and is expected to reach Batangas, Laguna later this afternoon...Winds of up to 100 kph with moderate to heavy rains can be expected along the inner bands. Meanwhile, outer bands of NANGKA remains across parts of Northern Visayas, Palawan, Southern Tagalog Provinces including Metro Manila & Masbate. Light to moderate rains with winds & squalls plus thunderstorms can be expected along the outer bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 150 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center. Improving weather can be expected across the rest of Bicol Peninsula and Rest of Visayas as the storm moves farther away. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Wed June 24 2009
    Location of Center: 13.1º N Lat 121.7º E Lon
    Distance 1: 40 km (22 nm) SSW of Marinduque
    Distance 2: 85 km (45 nm) NW of Romblon
    Distance 3: 90 km (48 nm) South of Lucena City
    Distance 4: 95 km (50 nm) ESE of Puerto Galera
    Distance 5: 95 km (50 nm) SE of Batangas City
    Distance 6: 140 km (75 nm) SSE of Tagaytay City
    Distance 7: 170 km (92 nm) SSE of Metro Manila
    Distance 8: 170 km (92 nm) WSW of Metro Naga/CWC
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    85 kph (45 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: NW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
    General Direction: Mindoro-Batangas
    Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Avg/Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft (3.3 m)
    T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 AM PST Wed June 24
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    00Z Wed June 24
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Wed June 24
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
    In Effect: METRO MANILA, MARINDQUE, ROMBLON, SOUTHERN QUEZON, MINDORO, LUBANG IS., BATANGAS, LAGUNA, CAVITE, BATAAN, & RIZAL.

    The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds of up to 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    In Effect: REST OF BICOL REGION, CALAMIAN GROUP, CUYO IS., TICAO & BURIAS, REST OF QUEZON, POLILLO IS., BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, TARLAC, PAMPANGA, ZAMBALES, PANGASINAN, AKLAN, ILOILO, BORACAY, & ANTIQUE.
    Now lowered: CATANDUANES AND OTHER PARTS OF VISAYAS.

    The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

    Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 1 & 2 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

    12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
    8 PM (12 GMT) 24 JUNE: 13.5N 120.7E / 85-100 KPH / NW @ 20 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 25 JUNE: 15.2N 119.3E / 100-130 KPH / NNW @ 20 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 26 JUNE: 19.1N 117.7E / 100-130 KPH / N @ 13 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 27 JUNE: 21.7N 117.7E / 95-120 KPH / N @ 24 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 24 JUNE POSITION: 12.6N 122.2E.
    ^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (NANGKA) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK
    WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
    PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND HAS MAINTAINED AN
    INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. INTENSITY IS MAINLY BASED ON CONTINUITY AND
    IS SUPPORTED BY A SAB DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. INTENSITY HAS
    ALSO BEEN MAINTAINED BY STEADILY IMPROVING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
    AS WELL AS A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TROPICAL
    UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. A 232301Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SUPPORTS THE
    240000Z POSITION AND CURRENT BEST TRACK. THE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS VERY
    DEEP, CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
    ...(
    more)

    >> NANGKA, meaning: JackFruitName contributed by: Malaysia.
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
     
    > 10 AM (02 GMT) 24 JUNE: 13.0N 121.5E / NW @ 17 kph / 75 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION
    :


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS NANGKA (FERIA)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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