Saturday, July 18, 2009

Typhoon MOLAVE (ISANG) - Update #012

 


for Saturday, 18 July 2009 [12:35 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri July 17 2009):

Currently issuing 3-hrly SMS & Web Updates and 6-hrly E-mail Updates on the Typhoon MOLAVE [ISANG] (except for 12:00 AM). ISANG is now internationally known as MOLAVE, a native filipino tree - after Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) upgraded and named the system.


MOLAVE (ISANG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr

TYPHOON MOLAVE [ISANG/07W/0906]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 012

12:00 AM PST (16:00 GMT) Sat 18 July 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / CWB RADAR/ JTWC WARNING #010
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Typhoon MOLAVE (ISANG) resumes its WNW track, faster across the Balintang Channel & away from Extreme Northern Luzon...back side of the storm still buffeting Extreme Northern Luzon with strong winds and rains.

    *Residents and visitors along Southern China should closely monitor the progress of MOLAVE.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: MOLAVE is expected to continue moving WNW exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this morning. The 2-day short-range forecast shows MOLAVE making landfall just to the ENE of Hong Kong this Saturday evening. MOLAVE is forecast to rapidly dissipate upon moving across the mountainous terrain of Guangdong, China on Sunday, July 19.

    + Effects: MOLAVE's core (Eye & Eyewall) has left Extreme Northern Luzon and is now traversing the Balintang Channel. Its eastern inner bands affecting Extreme Northern Luzon...Widespread rains and winds of 60-100 kph can be expected. Meanwhile, the outer bands of MOLAVE remains across Northwestern Luzon and Southern Taiwan. Rains and winds of 30-60 kph can be expected along the outer bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm along MOLAVE's Eyewall. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible near the center of MOLAVE. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern & Eastern Luzon, including the monsoon affected areas.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Moderate to strong southwesterly winds not in excess of 50 kph with occasional to continuous moderate to heavy rains, and passing squalls can be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, MINDORO, WESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 12:00 AM PST Sat July 18 2009
    Location of Eye: 21.0º N Lat 120.1º E Lon
    Distance 1: 205 km (110 nm) WNW of Basco, Batanes
    Distance 2: 180 km (97 nm) WNW of Itbayat, Batanes
    Distance 3: 180 km (97 nm) South of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
    Distance 4: 315 km (170 nm) NNW of Laoag City
    Distance 5: 625 km (338 nm) ESE of Hong Kong
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    120 kph (65 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (65 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
    Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WNW @ 30 kph (16 kts)
    General Direction: Southern China
    Size (in Diameter): 850 km (460 nm) / Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft (4.8 m)
    T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM PST Fri July 17
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    12Z Fri July 17
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 PM Fri July 17
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 48 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
    In Effect: BATANES GROUP, ILOCOS NORTE, APAYAO, NORTHERN CAGAYAN, BABUYAN, AND CALAYAN GROUP.

    The above areas will experience stormy weather tonight (with winds from 60 to 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    In Effect: REST OF CAGAYAN, KALINGA, ABRA, MT. PROVINCE, AND ILOCOS SUR.

    The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

    Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 1 & 2 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.
     
     

    JTWC 12, 24, & 48 HR. FORECAST:

    8 AM (00 GMT) 18 JULY: 22.0N 118.4E / 120-150 KPH / WNW @ 24 KPH 
    8 PM (12 GMT) 18 JULY: 23.0N 115.7E / 110-140 KPH / WNW @ 24 KPH
    8 PM (12 GMT) 19 JULY: 24.8N 110.5E / 45-65 KPH / ... @ .. KPH

    REMARKS: 8 PM (12 GMT) 17 JULY POSITION: 20.6N 121.2E.
    ^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MOLAVE) HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE
    TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TRACK SPEED FROM 09 KNOTS TO ITS
    CURRENT SPEED OF 16 KNOTS. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TS 07W HAS SEEN A
    RAPID INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY FROM 45 TO 60 KNOTS AND ORGANIZATION
    OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 171005Z
    QUIKSCAT PASS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THAT
    TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AROUND THE LLCC. DEEP
    CONVECTION REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TS 07W,
    HOWEVER, INFLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAS TEMPORARILY BEEN
    HAMPERED DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION WITH LUZON. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
    INDICATES THAT TS 07W REMAINS IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRON-
    MENT AND CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW. INCREASED INTER-
    ACTION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS THE
    PREDOMINANT FACTOR IN THE RECENT INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED AND SLIGHT
    SHIFT IN DIRECTION TO A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE PAST 03
    HOURS...
    (
    more)

    >> MOLAVE, meaning: A popular hard wood used in furnitureName contributed by: Philippines.
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
    > 10 PM (14 GMT) 17 JULY: 20.9N 121.1E / WNW @ 17 kph / 95 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
       
  • ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TY MOLAVE (ISANG/07W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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