Thursday, July 16, 2009

TS ISANG (07W) intensifying... [Update #006]

 


for Thursday, 16 July 2009 [1:34 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu July 16 2009):

Just uploaded the 12 PM T2K Storm Track...Currently issuing 6-hrly E-Mail, SMS & Web Updates on the TS ISANG [07W] (except for 12:00 AM).


ISANG (07W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM ISANG [07W]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 006

12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Thu 16 July 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #004
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm ISANG (07W) continues to intensify as it nears Northern Luzon...Outer rainbands continues to spread across Luzon including Bicol Region.

    *Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of ISANG.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: ISANG is expected to continue tracking towards the NW under the steering influence of a low-to-mid-level high pressure northeast of it. The 5-day long-range forecast shows ISANG reaching its peak strength of 85 kph as it passes over the northern coast of Cagayan tomorrow noontime...crossing Calayan, Babuyan and Batanes Group of Islands later in the afternoon (Friday). ISANG shall exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by early Saturday morning, July 18 and weaken into a 65-kph storm before making landfall over Hong Kong Area on Sunday morning, July 19. Dissipation of this system is forecast along the mountainous terrain of SW China on Monday morning July 20.

    + Effects: ISANG's circulation still developing over the Philippine Sea and remains broad...Its western outer bands continues to spread across Luzon including Metro Manila and the Bicol Region...Cloudy skies with passing light, moderate to heavy rains, squalls and scattered thunderstorms can be expected along these bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center of ISANG and along mountain slopes of Eastern & Northern Luzon. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area today. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Cloudy skies w/ light to moderate to sometimes heavy occasional rains, scattered thunderstorms, squalls and light to moderate SW winds not exceeding 40 kph can be expected over the following affected areas: MINDORO, WESTERN LUZON, WESTERN VISAYAS, MASBATE, BICOL REGION, METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES & NORTHERN MINDANAO. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Thu July 16 2009
    Location of Center: 16.6º N Lat 125.6º E Lon
    Distance 1: 360 km (195 nm) NNE of Virac, Catanduanes
    Distance 2: 365 km (197 nm) NNE of Gota Beach
    Distance 3: 375 km (202 nm) ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
    Distance 4: 420 km (227 nm) NE of Metro Naga/CWC
    Distance 5: 430 km (233 nm) ESE of Tuguegarao, City
    Distance 6: 460 km (250 nm) ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
    Distance 7: 530 km (287 nm) NE of Metro Manila
    Distance 8: 575 km (310 nm) SE of Basco, Batanes
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    75 kph (35 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (45 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: NW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
    General Direction: Extreme Northern Luzon
    Size (in Diameter): 550 km (295 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft (3.3 m)
    T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12 PM PST Thu July 16
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    00Z Thu July 16
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
    Now In Effect: ISABELA, SOUTHERN CAGAYAN & NORTHERN AURORA.

    The above areas will experience stormy weather today and tomorrow (with winds of up to 95 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    In Effect: REST OF AURORA, REST OF CAGAYAN, QUIRINO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, KALINGA, APAYAO, ABRA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, BENGUET, LA UNION, ILOCOS PROVINCES, BABUYAN ISLANDS, NUEVA ECIJA, & PANGASINAN.

    The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today and tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

    Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 1 & 2 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

    JTWC 12, 24, 48, & 72 HR. FORECAST:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 16 JULY: 17.8N 124.2E / 75-95 KPH / NW @ 19 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 17 JULY: 19.1N 122.5E / 85-100 KPH / NW @ 19 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 18 JULY: 21.2N 118.6E / 85-100 KPH / WNW @ 20 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 19 JULY: 22.8N 114.3E / 65-85 KPH / WNW @ 20 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 16 JULY POSITION: 16.5N 125.9E.
    ^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (SEVEN) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK NORTH-
    WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND HAS INCREASED IN
    INTENSITY TO A WEAK TROPICAL STORM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
    IMAGERY SHOWS DECENT CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE STORM CENTER AND
    ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF
    THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS INDICATIONS OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A
    TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST. CURRENT
    POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 152324Z 91 GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE
    IMAGE AND THE PGTW 152330Z FIX. TS 07W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
    SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE RIDGING
    INTO CHINA FROM THE EAST...
    (
    more)
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
    > 10 AM (02 GMT) 16 JULY: 16.1N 124.7E / WNW @ 17 kph / 75 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
       
  • ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS ISANG (07W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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