Friday, July 10, 2009

TD 05W (GORIO) - Update #004




for Friday, 10 July 2009 [7:08 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu July 09 2009):

Continuing the 6-hrly SMS/Web Updates on TD GORIO (except 12:00 AM).


05W (GORIO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W [GORIO]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 004 

As of 6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Fri 10 July 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #003
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Depression 05W (GORIO) slowing down as it tracks WNW across the South China Sea, away from Ilocos Norte.

    *Residents and visitors along Southern China should closely monitor the progress of 05W.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: 05W is expected to become a minimal tropical storm later tonight and shall continue moving towards the WNW. The 3-day Medium Range Forecast shows 05W making landfall west of Hong Kong on Sunday afternoon, July 12 and shall weaken rapidly into a disturbance as it moves overland across mainland China.

    + Effects: 05W's rain bands continues to spread across the western part of Extreme Northern Luzon, with improving weather later tonight or tomorrow. Light to moderate rains with winds & squalls plus thunderstorms can be expected along these bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: WEAK >> Cloudy skies w/ light to moderate occasional rains & some passing thunderstorms w/ squalls plus light to moderate SW winds not exceeding 35 kph can be expected over the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, MINDORO, PALAWAN, PARTS OF VISAYAS & MINDANAO, INCLUDING SOME AREAS OF BICOL REGION AND SOUTHERN LUZON. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Fri July 10 2009
    Location of Center: 19.3º N Lat 119.4º E Lon
    Distance 1: 175 km (95 nm) NW of Laoag City
    Distance 2: 220 km (120 nm) West of Calayan Island
    Distance 3: 635 km (343 nm) SE of Hong Kong
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    55 kph (30 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WNW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
    General Direction: Southern China
    Size (in Diameter): 300 km (160 nm) / Small
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft (3.3 m)
    T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM PST Fri July 10
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    06Z Fri July 11
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time

    12, 24, 48  & 72 HR. FORECAST:
    2 AM (18 GMT) 11 JULY: 19.4N 118.1E / 65-85 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH
  • 2 PM (06 GMT) 11 JULY: 20.2N 116.2E / 75-95 KPH / WNW @ 15 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 12 JULY: 21.6N 113.0E / 75-95 KPH / NW @ 15 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 13 JULY: 23.4N 110.1E / 35-55 KPH / -- @ -- KPH

    REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 10 JULY POSITION: 19.2N 119.8E.
    ^TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W HAS CONTINUED TO SKIRT THE
    NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AND IS MOVING
    WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO WARNING STATUS
    AFTER A 1018Z QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED AN ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE
    SYSTEM REPORTED WINDS RANGING FROM 17 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTION WITH
    THE SYSTEM HAS PICKED UP AND THE LATEST PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE IS 30
    KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY ALSO SHOW THE
    INCREASED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ALONG THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERN SIDE
    OF THE SYSTEM....
    (
    more)

    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
     
    > 4 PM (08 GMT) 10 JULY: 18.6N 118.1E / West @ 24 kph / 55 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD 05W (GORIO)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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