Sunday, July 12, 2009

TS SOUDELOR (GORIO) now over Qiongzhou Strait... [Update #008]




for Sunday, 12 July 2009 [6:07 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun July 12 2009):

Continuing the 6-hrly E-Mail & Web Updates on TS SOUDELOR [GORIO] (except 12:00 AM).


SOUDELOR (GORIO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR [GORIO/05W/0905]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 008

As of 6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Sun 12 July 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #007
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm SOUDELOR (GORIO) now passing along the Qiongzhou Strait or off the Northern Coast of Hainan Island...Heavy rains pouring across the island.

    *Residents and visitors along the Gulf of Tonkin and Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of SOUDELOR.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: SOUDELOR is expected to track across the Gulf of Tonkin later today and make landfall over Northern Vietnam tomorrow morning or afternoon. The system shall weaken rapidly and dissipate tomorrow evening.

    + Effects: SOUDELOR's circulation remains compact with its rain bands spreading across Hainan Island and Southwestern China, and is now affecting the Gulf of Tonkin and the coast of Northern Vietnan. Moderate to heavy rains with winds & squalls plus thunderstorms can be expected along these bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 150 up to 250 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands.  Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Cloudy skies w/ light to moderate to sometimes heavy occasional rains with thunderstorms and squalls plus moderate SW winds not exceeding 40 kph can be expected over the following affected areas: PALAWAN, WESTERN VISAYAS, MINDORO & PORTIONS OF BICOL REGION. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA) still trying to organize over the Philippine Sea...now located near lat 18.9N lon 126.9E...or about 570 km East of Calayan Island, Cagayan...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...currently drifting NW while embedded within the Monsoon Trough (ITCZ).

    (2) Tropical Disturbance 91W (LPA) has become disorganized during the past 12 hours...now located near lat 8.4N lon 137.1E...or about 1,190 km East of Northern Mindanao or 165 km SW of Yap Island...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph...currently drifting Westward slowly and is currently embedded within the eastern extent of the Monsoon Trough (ITCZ).


    These systems will be closely monitored for possible development into Significant Tropical Cyclones within the next 2 to 3 days. Kindly click the cool
    T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sun July 12 2009
    Location of Center: 20.1º N Lat 110.7º E Lon
    Distance 1: 40 km (22 nm) East of Haikou, Hainan Is.
    Distance 2: 100 km (55 nm) North of Qionghai, Hainan Is.
    Distance 3: 135 km (73 nm) SSE of Zhanjiang, China
    Distance 4: 430 km (233 nm) WSW of Hong Kong
    Distance 5: 520 km (280 nm) ESE of Hanoi, Vietnam
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    65 kph (35 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: West @ 28 kph (15 kts)
    General Direction: Leizhou-Hainan Area
    Size (in Diameter): 405 km (220 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Sun July 12
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    18Z Sat July 11
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sun July 12
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 36 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    12, 24 & 36 HR. FORECAST:
    2 PM (06 GMT) 12 JULY: 20.2N 109.7E / 55-75 KPH / W @ 19 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 13 JULY: 20.4N 107.6E / 45-65 KPH / W @ 15 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 13 JULY: 20.6N 105.8E / 35-55 KPH / . @ .. KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 12 JULY POSITION: 20.0N 112.0E.
    ^RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE
    CENTER AND QUICKLY BECOMING SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM
    CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE WEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
    SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. THE
    SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM BASED ON AN 35 KT
    INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND FROM AN 1104Z QUIKSCAT PASS THAT
    SHOWS A LARGE REGION OF 30-35 KT UNFLAGGED WINDS WRAPPING AROUND A
    WELL DEFINED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
    BECOMING SUBJECTED TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS
    IT NEARS THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
    TO TRACK WESTWARD AS IT WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR
    TO THE NORTH AND IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES NEAR HAINAN ISLAND AND
    CONTINUES TO BE SUBJECTED TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF VERTICAL WIND
    SHEAR...
    (
    more)

    >> SOUDELOR, meaning: A legendary Pohnpei ChiefName contributed by: Micronesia.
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS SOUDELOR (GORIO)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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