Friday, July 17, 2009

TS MOLAVE (ISANG) - Update #006

 


for Friday, 17 July 2009 [5:53 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri July 17 2009):

Now issuing 3-hrly SMS & Web Updates and 6-hrly E-mail Updates on the TS MOLAVE [ISANG] (except for 12:00 AM). ISANG is now internationally known as MOLAVE, a native filipino tree - after Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) upgraded and named the system.


MOLAVE (ISANG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM MOLAVE [ISANG/07W/0906]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Fri 17 July 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #008
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm MOLAVE (ISANG) wobbles to the NW...Outer bands dumping widespread rains and winds across Northern and Central Luzon...Enhanced Southwest Monsoon Rains (aka. Habagat) across Luzon & Visayas including Palawan, Mindoro, Metro Manila & Bicol Region.

    *Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan & Southern China should closely monitor the progress of MOLAVE.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: MOLAVE is expected to resume its WNW movement under the steering influence of a low-to-mid-level high pressure northeast of the storm. The 3-day medium-range forecast shows MOLAVE maintaing its strength as it passes over the Batanes Group of Islands before sunset today...moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by early tomorrow morning (Saturday) July 18 . MOLAVE shall weaken as it makes landfall north of Hong Kong on Sunday afternoon, July 19. Dissipation of this system is forecast along the mountainous terrain of Guangdong Province of China early Monday morning, July 20.

    + Effects: MOLAVE's improving main core (CDO) has remained over the Philippine Sea with its inner bands just off the east coast of Cagayan. Its western outer bands continues to spread across Northern & Central Luzon...Widespread rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected along these bands, with increasing wind velocity of up to 100 kph near the core of MOLAVE. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm near the center of MOLAVE and along mountain slopes of Northern Luzon. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible near the center of MOLAVE. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern & Eastern Luzon, including the monsoon affected areas.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Moderate to strong southwesterly winds not in excess of 50 kph with occasional to continuous widespread rains, and passing scattered squalls can be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, MINDORO, REST OF LUZON, VISAYAS, MASBATE, BICOL REGION, & METRO MANILA. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Fri July 17 2009
    Location of Center: 18.4º N Lat 123.7º E Lon
    Distance 1: 210 km (113 nm) East of Aparri, Cagayan
    Distance 2: 230 km (125 nm) ENE of Tuguegarao City
    Distance 3: 250 km (135 nm) ESE of Calayan Island
    Distance 4: 295 km (160 nm) SE of Basco, Batanes
    Distance 5: 300 km (162 nm) NE of Casiguran, Aurora
    Distance 6: 330 km (178 nm) ENE of Laoag City
    Distance 7: 505 km (273 nm) NNE of Metro Manila
    Distance 8: 535 km (290 nm) North of Metro Naga/CWC
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    85 kph (45 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: NW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
    General Direction: Calayan-Batanes Islands
    Size (in Diameter): 480 km (260 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
    T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 AM PST Fri July 17
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    18Z Thu July 16
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Fri July 17
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
    In Effect: BATANES GROUP, CAGAYAN, BABUYAN GROUP, CALAYAN GROUP, ISABELA, KALINGA, APAYAO, ABRA, ILOCOS NORTE.

    The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds from 60 to 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    In Effect: NORTHERN AURORA, QUIRINO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, BENGUET, LA UNION, ILOCOS SUR, PANGASINAN.

    The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

    Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 1 & 2 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides. 

    JTWC 12, 24, 48, & 72 HR. FORECAST:

    2 AM (18 GMT) 17 JULY: 19.8N 122.3E / 75-95 KPH / WNW @ 20 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 17 JULY: 20.8N 120.2E / 75-95 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 18 JULY: 22.5N 116.1E / 65-85 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 19 JULY: 23.9N 112.2E / 35-55 KPH / ... @ .. KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 17 JULY POSITION: 18.5N 124.2E.
    ^THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
    (STR) EXTENDING WEST INTO EASTERN CHINA OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
    ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
    TROUGH CELL TO THE EAST FILLING INTO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
    PROVIDING LIMITED OUTFLOW FOR 07W TO THE EAST. ANIMATED INFRARED
    IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION AND CIRRUS FORMING OVER THE CENTER OF
    TS 07W WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
    CENTER (LLCC). THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS LESS
    DEFINED THAN THE EASTERN EDGE INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM IS
    SUBJECTED TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 1541Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS A POCKET
    OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC WITH VERY
    LITTLE CONVECTION OVER THE ACTUAL CENTER AND FRAGMENTED BANDS OF
    DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
    TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
    THE STR AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN EASTERN CHINA AROUND TAU
    48. THERE IS SOME MODEL INDICATION THAT THE PASSAGE OF A MIDLATITUDE
    TROUGH WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE STR TO THE NORTH ALLOWING TS 07W TO
    MAKE A SMALL NORTHWARD JOG BEFORE RESUMING ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
    TRACK, OTHERWISE OBJECTIVE AID AGREEMENT IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS
    EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER
    FAVORABLE WATER, BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE AREA ALONG WITH LOSS
    OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL KEEP DEVELOPMENT LIMITED....
    (
    more)
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
    > 4 AM (20 GMT) 17 JULY: 18.0N 123.2E / WNW @ 15 kph / 85 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
       
  • ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS MOLAVE (ISANG/07W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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