Wednesday, July 15, 2009

TD ISANG (07W) heads for Extreme Northern Luzon... [Update #004]




for Wednesday, 15 July 2009 [7:26 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed July 15 2009):

Just uploaded the 6 PM T2K Tracking Chart on ISANG...Currently issuing 6-hrly E-Mail, SMS & Web Updates on the TD ISANG [07W] (except for 12:00 AM).


ISANG (07W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISANG [07W]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 004

As of 6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Wed 15 July 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #001
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Depression ISANG (07W) moving faster towards the NW...increases its threat to Extreme Northern Luzon...outer rainbands affecting Bicol Region.

    *Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of ISANG.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: ISANG is expected to continue tracking towards the NW and shall slow down later while traversing the Philippine Sea. The 2 to 5-day medium range forecast shows ISANG turning more to the WNW as it becomes a minimal Tropical Storm by early Friday morning. It shall pass very near the Batanes Group of Islands on Friday afternoon before moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Saturday afternoon, July 18. ISANG shall weaken into a Tropical Depression as it prepares to make landfall over Guangdong Province, just west of Hong Kong on Sunday evening, July 19.

    + Effects: ISANG's circulation still consolidating over the Philippine Sea and has become more broader...Its western outer bands is now covering the Bicol Region...Cloudy skies with light to moderate rains with squalls and thunderstorms can be expected along these bands.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies w/ light to moderate occasional rains, thunderstorms, squalls and moderate SW winds not exceeding 35 kph can be expected over the following affected areas: CALAMIAN GROUP, PALAWAN, WESTERN VISAYAS & SOUTHERN LUZON. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) over the South China Sea has left the PAR as it remains disorganized...currently located near lat 18.9N lon 113.4E...or about 765 km WNW of Laoag City...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...accelerating WNW while embedded within the broad Monsoon Trough (ITCZ).

    This system will be closely monitored for possible development into a Significant Tropical Cyclone within the next 2 to 3 days. Kindly click the cool
    T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Wed July 15 2009
    Location of Center: 15.5º N Lat 127.0º E Lon
    Distance 1: 370 km (200 nm) NE of Virac, Catanduanes
    Distance 2: 395 km (213 nm) NE of Gota Beach
    Distance 3: 460 km (248 nm) NE of Metro Naga/CWC
    Distance 4: 465 km (250 nm) ENE of Daet, Cam Norte
    Distance 5: 530 km (285 nm) ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
    Distance 6: 575 km (310 nm) ENE of Infanta, Quezon
    Distance 7: 610 km (330 nm) SE of Tuguegarao City
    Distance 8: 650 km (350 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    55 kph (30 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (38 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: NW @ 37 kph (20 kts)
    General Direction: Extreme Northern Luzon
    Size (in Diameter): 550 km (295 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
    T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM PST Wed July 15
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    06Z Wed July 15
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    JTWC 12, 24, 48, & 72 HR. FORECAST:
    2 AM (18 GMT) 16 JULY: 16.3N 126.7E / 55-75 KPH / NNW @ 17 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 16 JULY: 17.8N 125.8E / 55-75 KPH / NW @ 17 KPH
    2 PM (00 GMT) 17 JULY: 20.1N 122.5E / 65-85 KPH / W @ 11 KPH
    2 PM (00 GMT) 18 JULY: 20.6N 120.0E / 60-85 KPH / W @ 20 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 15 JULY POSITION: 14.6N 127.7E.
    ^ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS TD 07W
    HAS INCREASED CONVECTION WITH MULTIPLE BANDS CONSOLIDATING AROUND A
    DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
    ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 150442Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS
    WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
    DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
    THE SYSTEM IS UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)AND JUST SOUTHWEST
    OF AN ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE TD IS
    TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
    TOWARDS LUZON STRAIT WHERE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS FAVORABLE. THE
    SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY UP TO 72 HRS THEN GRADUALLY
    WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VWS ON ITS WESTWARD TURN TOWARDS HONG
    KONG. AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE TRACK FORECAST
    COVERING A SWATH FROM NORTHERN LUZON TO CENTRAL TAIWAN. THIS
    FORECAST IS JUST NORTH OF CONSENSUS UP TO 72 HRS THEN SOUTH AND
    AHEAD OF CONSENSUS PAST 72 HRS....
    (
    more)
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
    > 2 PM (06 GMT) 15 JULY: 15.2N 126.9E / NW @ 19 kph / 55 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
       
  • ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD ISANG (07W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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