Sunday, July 19, 2009

Typhoon MOLAVE (ISANG) prepares to make landfall very close to HK... [Update #016]

 


for Sunday, 19 July 2009 [12:30 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat July 18 2009):

Ending the 6-hrly SMS Updates on MOLAVE (ISANG)...Currently issuing 6-hrly Web and E-mail Updates on Typhoon MOLAVE [ISANG] (except for 12:00 AM). Meanwhile, a developing Tropical Disturbance 95W (LPA) has been spotted over the Philippine Sea, east of Northern Samar, more details below.


MOLAVE (ISANG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 110 km/hr

EYEWALL PASSAGE FORECAST TIMES:

+ Hong Kong: 1AM until 9AM today

Note: The EyeWall - is the ring of rain cloud s surrounding the "EYE" of a Typhoon. It is here where the strongest winds and heaviest rain of a typhoon can be found. EPFT will show what local times on a given area the most damaging winds and heaviest rainfall could be experienced. EPFT changes everytime a new warning synopsis is issued. Important: This is only an estimate analysis, do not use this for life or death decisions.

TYPHOON MOLAVE [ISANG/07W/0906]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 016

12:00 AM PST (16:00 GMT) Sun 19 July 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / HKO TC WARNING & RADAR
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Typhoon MOLAVE (ISANG) still intensifying as it prepares to make landfall...The eye is expected to pass very close and make landfall north of Hong Kong between 2AM to 8AM today...Eastern Eyewall to enter Hong Kong in the next few hours.

    *Residents and visitors along Southern China especially Guangdong Province should closely monitor the progress of MOLAVE.

    **Important Note: Residents of Hong Kong must take precautionary measures, as NW Gale or Storm Signal No. 8 is now in force...strong winds expected in the next few hours. Kindly check out Hong Kong Observatory's bulletin for more details. Also check out the various wind gusts across various Automated Weather Station around HK in real-time.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: MOLAVE is expected to continue moving West to WNW and shall make landfall in the vicinity of Hong Kong early this morning. MOLAVE is forecast to rapidly dissipate later tonight as it moves overland, across the mountainous terrain of Guangdong, China.

    + Effects: MOLAVE's core (Eye & Eyewall) is now within 100 km of HKO Radar. Near-Typhoon force winds has started to affect Hong Kong and neaby areas. The Eastern Eyewall of MOLAVE is expected to arrive over HK in the next few hours. Moderate to heavy rains with typhoon force winds of more than 120 kph can be expected at this moment until 9 AM today. Outer and inner rainbands on the other hand is expected to affect most of Guangdong Province. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 250 mm along MOLAVE's Eyewall. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible near the center of MOLAVE. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Coastal Guangdong, including the monsoon affected areas.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Moderate to strong southwesterly winds not in excess of 50 kph with occasional to continuous moderate to heavy rains, and passing squalls can be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) The new Tropical Disturbance 95W (LPA) trying to organize over the warm waters of the Philippine Sea...currently located near lat 12.4N lon 131.6E...or about 760 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...drifting West slowly while embedded within the Monsoon Trough (ITCZ).

    This system will be closely monitored for possible development into a Significant Tropical Cyclone within the next 2 to 3 days. Watch for more information on this new disturbance as new data arrives. Kindly click the cool
    T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 12:00 AM PST Sun July 19 2009
    Location of Eye: 22.4º N Lat 115.1º E Lon
    Distance 1: 95 km (50 nm) East of Hong Kong
    Distance 2: 155 km (83 nm) East of Macau
    Distance 3: 200 km (108 nm) WSW of Shantou, China
    Distance 4: 535 km (290 nm) West of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
    Distance 5: 740 km (400 nm) WNW of Basco, Batanes
    MaxWinds (10-min avg):
    140 kph (75 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
    Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WNW @ 24 kph (13 kts)
    General Direction: Hong Kong Area
    Size (in Diameter): 650 km (350 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
    HKO TrackMap (for Public): Real-Time
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    12Z Sat July 18
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 11 PM Sat July 18
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    JTWC 12 & 24 HR. FORECAST:

    8 AM (00 GMT) 19 JULY: 23.2N 113.2E / 95-120 KPH / WNW @ 20 KPH 
    8 PM (12 GMT) 19 JULY: 23.8N 111.0E / 55-75 KPH / ... @ .. KPH

    REMARKS: 8 PM (12 GMT) 18 JULY POSITION: 22.3N 115.9E.

    ^ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST
    THREE HOURS AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FROM HONG KONG DEPICTS A
    CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE TYPHOON IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST
    NORTH OF HONG KONG AFTER 06 HRS THEN TRACK INLAND INTO CHINA AND
    DISSIPATE BY 24 HOURS...
    (
    more)

    >> MOLAVE, meaning: A popular hard wood used in furnitureName contributed by: Philippines.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT HK OBSERVATORY TRACKING CHART
    :

  • _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TY MOLAVE (ISANG)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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