Thursday, July 16, 2009

TS ISANG (07W) approaching Extreme Northern Luzon... [Update #007]

 


for Thursday, 16 July 2009 [7:23 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu July 16 2009):

Just loaded the 6 PM T2K Storm Track...Currently issuing 6-hrly E-Mail, SMS & Web Updates on the TS ISANG [07W] (except for 12:00 AM).


ISANG (07W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM ISANG [07W]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 007

6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Thu 16 July 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC FIX & WARNING #005
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm ISANG (07W) veers slightly NNW...nears Cagayan's East Coast...Outer rainbands spreading across Central & Northern Luzon.

    *Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of ISANG.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: ISANG is expected to resume its NW track under the steering influence of a low-to-mid-level high pressure northeast of it. The 4-day long-range forecast shows ISANG maintaing its strength as it passes over the northern coast of Cagayan tomorrow morning...crossing Calayan, Babuyan and Batanes Group of Islands tomorrow afternoon. ISANG shall exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by early Saturday morning, July 18 and shall make landfall over Hong Kong Area on Sunday morning, July 19. Dissipation of this system is forecast along the mountainous terrain of SW China on Monday July 20.

    + Effects: ISANG's broad circulation has remained over the Philippine Sea near the east coast of Cagayan...Its western outer bands continues to spread across Northern & Central Luzon...Light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected along these bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 150 mm near the center of ISANG and along mountain slopes of Eastern & Northern Luzon. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Light to moderate to sometimes heavy widespread rains, passing squalls and light to moderate SW winds not exceeding 40 kph can be expected over the following affected areas: PALAWAN, MINDORO, WESTERN LUZON, WESTERN & NORTHERN VISAYAS, MASBATE, BICOL REGION, METRO MANILA, & SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Thu July 16 2009
    Location of Center: 17.9º N Lat 124.8º E Lon
    Distance 1: 330 km (178 nm) ENE of Tuguegarao City
    Distance 2: 330 km (178 nm) ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
    Distance 3: 345 km (187 nm) NE of Casiguran, Aurora
    Distance 4: 380 km (205 nm) ESE of Calayan Island
    Distance 5: 410 km (222 nm) SE of Basco, Batanes
    Distance 6: 470 km (255 nm) NNE of Gota Beach
    Distance 7: 510 km (275 nm) NNE of Metro Naga/CWC
    Distance 8: 540 km (292 nm) NE of Metro Manila
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    75 kph (35 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (45 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: NNW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
    General Direction: Extreme Northern Luzon
    Size (in Diameter): 550 km (295 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft (3.3 m)
    T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM PST Thu July 16
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    06Z Thu July 16
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
    Now In Effect: ISABELA & CAGAYAN.

    The above areas will experience stormy weather tonight and tomorrow (with winds of up to 95 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    In Effect: AURORA, QUIRINO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, KALINGA, APAYAO, ABRA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, BENGUET, LA UNION, ILOCOS PROVINCES, PANGASINAN, & BATANES.

    The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight and tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

    Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 1 & 2 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

    JTWC 12, 24, 48, & 72 HR. FORECAST:

    2 AM (18 GMT) 17 JULY: 18.3N 123.4E / 75-95 KPH / NW @ 19 KPH 
    2 PM (06 GMT) 17 JULY: 19.5N 121.6E / 75-95 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 18 JULY: 21.4N 117.6E / 75-95 KPH / WNW @ 20 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 19 JULY: 22.9N 113.1E / 55-75 KPH / WNW @ 20 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 16 JULY POSITION: 17.0N 125.1E.
    ^THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NORTHEAST OF  TS 07W REMAINS THE DOMINANT
    STEERING INFLUENCE, HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE NORTHWEST TRACK. DEEP
    CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    (LLCC). IN THE MOST RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY, A SECONDARY LLCC
    IS IDENTIFIABLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TS 07W AND APPEARS TO HAVE SPUN
    OFF FROM THE MAIN CIRCULATION. THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
    THAT TS 07W REMAINS IN A WEAKLY DIFFLUENT REGION, AND THAT THE UPPER
    LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE THE MAJOR HINDRANCE TO STRONGER
    DEVELOPMENT....
    (
    more)
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
    > 4 PM (08 GMT) 16 JULY: 16.6N 124.4E / WNW @ 17 kph / 75 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
       
  • ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS ISANG (07W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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