Saturday, July 11, 2009

TS SOUDELOR (GORIO) - Update #007




for Saturday, 11 July 2009 [7:17 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat July 11 2009):

Continuing the 6-hrly E-Mail & Web Updates on TD SOUDELOR [GORIO] (except 12:00 AM).


SOUDELOR (GORIO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR [GORIO/05W/0905]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007

As of 6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Sat 11 July 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #007
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm SOUDELOR (GORIO) moving closer to Hainan-Leizhou Area.

    *Residents and visitors along Southwestern China should closely monitor the progress of SOUDELOR.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: SOUDELOR is expected to make landfall off Leizhou Peninsula by tomorrow morning and weaken rapidly as it moves overland across the Northern Vietnam boundary by early Monday morning July 13.

    + Effects: SOUDELOR's circulation remains compact with its rain bands spreading across Hainan Island and Southwestern China. Light to moderate rains with winds & squalls plus thunderstorms can be expected along these bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Cloudy skies w/ light to moderate to sometimes heavy occasional rains with thunderstorms and squalls plus moderate SW winds not exceeding 40 kph can be expected over the following affected areas: PALAWAN, WESTERN VISAYAS, MINDORO & PORTIONS OF BICOL REGION, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES INCLUDING METRO MANILA.  Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) New Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA) forming over the Philippine Sea...is now located near lat 17.3N lon 129.4E...or about 745 km East of Northern Luzon...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...currently drifting NNW while embedded within the Monsoon Trough (ITCZ).

    (2) New Tropical Disturbance 91W (LPA) forming over the Caroline Islands...is now located near lat 8.4N lon 140.0E...or about 1,505 km East of Northern Mindanao or 240 km SE of Yap Island...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...currently drifting WNW slowly and is currently embedded within the eastern extent of the Monsoon Trough (ITCZ).


    These systems will be closely monitored for possible development into Significant Tropical Cyclones within the next 2 to 3 days. Kindly click the cool
    T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sat July 11 2009
    Location of Center: 20.3º N Lat 113.3º E Lon
    Distance 1: 215 km (115 nm) South of Macau
    Distance 2: 240 km (130 nm) SSW of Hong Kong
    Distance 3: 310 km (167 nm) ESE of Zhanjiang, China
    Distance 4: 315 km (170 nm) East of Haikou, Hainan Is.
    Distance 5: 800 km (430 nm) WNW of Laoag City
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    65 kph (35 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WNW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
    General Direction: Leizhou-Hainan Area
    Size (in Diameter): 405 km (220 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Sat July 11
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    06Z Sat July 11
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 4 PM Sat July 11
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 48 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
    2 AM (18 GMT) 12 JULY: 20.5N 111.4E / 55-75 KPH / WNW @ 20 KPH
  • 2 PM (06 GMT) 12 JULY: 21.0N 109.0E / 55-75 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 13 JULY: 21.9N 104.8E / 45-65 KPH / . @ .. KPH

    REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 11 JULY POSITION: 20.2N 114.0E.
    ^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK WESTWARD AT
    17 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
    SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS TAIWAN AND INTO CHINA.
    POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS LARGELY BASED ON AN
    INCREASINGLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN
    ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. TS 05W HAS INCREASED IN CONVECTION
    IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND HAS INTENSIFIED BY 05 KNOTS TO
    TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY A PGTW
    DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS AS WELL AS A 102236Z QUIKSCAT PASS
    SHOWING UNFLAGGED 30-KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
    STORM...
    (
    more)

    >> SOUDELOR, meaning: A legendary Pohnpei ChiefName contributed by: Micronesia.
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS SOUDELOR (GORIO)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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