Bushman's Typhoon Blog: July 2009

Sunday, July 19, 2009

TS MOLAVE (ISANG) - Final Update

for Sunday, 19 July 2009 [12:45 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun July 19 2009):

Ending the 6-hrly Web and Email Updates on MOLAVE, as the system rapidly dissipates overland (SW China).

MOLAVE (ISANG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM MOLAVE [ISANG/07W/0906]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 018 [FINAL]
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Sun 19 July 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #016
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm MOLAVE (ISANG) rapidly weakening as it start dissipating along the rugged terrain of Western Guangdong (China).

*This is the Final E-mail Advisory on this tropical cyclone.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MOLAVE is expected to continue moving WNW across Western Guangdong and dissipate within the day.

+ Effects: MOLAVE's weakening circulation will continue to dump widespread rains across Western Guangdong, Gulf of Tonkin and Hainan Island. Rainfall accumulations of up to 250 mm can be expected today. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with rains, and passing squalls can be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Disturbance 95W (LPA) has dissipated and is no longer a potential threat.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Sun July 19 2009
Location of Center: 23.2º N Lat 111.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 240 km (130 nm) WNW of Macau
Distance 2: 295 km (160 nm) WNW of Hong Kong
Distance 3: 530 km (287 nm) West of Shantou, China
Distance 4: 240 km (130 nm) NE of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 5: 1,125 km (608 nm) WNW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 30 kph (16 kts)
General Direction: Western Guangdong
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Sun July 19
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00Z Sun July 19
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 11 AM Sun July 19
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 12 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
JTWC 12 HR. FORECAST:

8 PM (12 GMT) 19 JULY: 24.0N 109.5E / 35-55 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 19 JULY POSITION: 23.0N 112.4E.
^THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH
LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOONWARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//...(more)

>> MOLAVE, meaning: A popular hard wood used in furniture. Name contributed by: Philippines.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT HK OBSERVATORY TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS MOLAVE (ISANG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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MOLAVE (ISANG) made landfall close to HK...weakens into a Storm... [Update #017]

for Sunday, 19 July 2009 [6:18 AM PST]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun July 19 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly Web and E-mail Updates on TS MOLAVE [ISANG] (except for 12:00 AM).

MOLAVE (ISANG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM MOLAVE [ISANG/07W/0906]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 017
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Sun 19 July 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / HKO TC WARNING & RADAR
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

MOLAVE (ISANG) has made landfall near Hong Kong between 2-3AM early this morning as a 120-kph Typhoon...now moving across Western Guangdong, just north of Macau as a weakened Tropical Storm.

*Residents and visitors along Western Guangdong should closely monitor the progress of MOLAVE.

**Important Note: Residents of Hong Kong should continue take precautionary measures, as SW Gale or Storm Signal No. 8 is in force...Early this morning, Storm Signal No. 9 was raised as the Eyewall of MOLAVE passed some 40 km. to the North of HK. Kindly check out Hong Kong Observatory's bulletin for more details. Also check out the various wind gusts across various Automated Weather Station around HK in real-time.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MOLAVE is expected to continue moving WNW across Western Guangdong this morning. MOLAVE will start to dissipate later this afternoon until early tomorrow while moving overland, across the mountainous terrain of Western Guangdong.

+ Effects: MOLAVE's weakening core (Eye & Eyewall) is now moving away to the west of Hong Kong or just north of Macau. Gale force winds of up to 100 kph with widespread rains will continue to prevail over Macau, Hong Kong and Western Guangdong. Its outer and inner rainbands continues to weaken as it spreads across other parts of SW China and Hainan Island. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm along mountain slopes near the center of MOLAVE. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of up to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Western Gunagdong. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of SW China and Hainan Island, including the monsoon affected areas.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with rains, and passing squalls can be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA & THE COASTAL AREAS OF WESTERN LUZON.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Disturbance 95W (LPA) disorganized and weak over the warm waters of the Philippine Sea...currently located near lat 12.6N lon 131.0E...or about 695 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...almost stationary while embedded within the Monsoon Trough (ITCZ).

This system will be closely monitored for possible development into a Significant Tropical Cyclone within the next 2 to 3 days. Watch for more information on this new disturbance as new data arrives. Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sun July 19 2009
Location of Center: 22.7º N Lat 113.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 65 km (35 nm) NNW of Macau
Distance 2: 110 km (60 nm) WNW of Hong Kong
Distance 3: 355 km (192 nm) WSW of Shantou, China
Distance 4: 335 km (180 nm) ENE of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 5: 925 km (500 nm) WNW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 25 kph (14 kts)
General Direction: Western Guangdong
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
HKO TrackMap (for Public): Real-Time
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18Z Sat July 18
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 5 AM Sun July 19
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
JTWC 12 & 24 HR. FORECAST:

2 PM (06 GMT) 19 JULY: 24.0N 110.9E / 75-95 KPH / NW @ 30 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 20 JULY: 26.1N 108.2E / 35-55 KPH / ... @ .. KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 19 JULY POSITION: 22.5N 114.0E.
^TROPICAL STORM 07W (MOLAVE) HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG, AND
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND INTO MAINLAND CHINA BEFORE DISSIPATING
NEAR TAU 24...(more)

>> MOLAVE, meaning: A popular hard wood used in furniture. Name contributed by: Philippines.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT HK OBSERVATORY TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Messages in this topic (1) Reply (via web post) | Start a new topic

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Change settings via email: Switch delivery to Daily Digest | Switch format to Traditional
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Typhoon MOLAVE (ISANG) prepares to make landfall very close to HK... [Update #016]

for Sunday, 19 July 2009 [12:30 AM PST]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat July 18 2009):

Ending the 6-hrly SMS Updates on MOLAVE (ISANG)...Currently issuing 6-hrly Web and E-mail Updates on Typhoon MOLAVE [ISANG] (except for 12:00 AM). Meanwhile, a developing Tropical Disturbance 95W (LPA) has been spotted over the Philippine Sea, east of Northern Samar, more details below.

MOLAVE (ISANG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 110 km/hr

EYEWALL PASSAGE FORECAST TIMES:

+ Hong Kong: 1AM until 9AM today

Note: The EyeWall - is the ring of rain cloud s surrounding the "EYE" of a Typhoon. It is here where the strongest winds and heaviest rain of a typhoon can be found. EPFT will show what local times on a given area the most damaging winds and heaviest rainfall could be experienced. EPFT changes everytime a new warning synopsis is issued. Important: This is only an estimate analysis, do not use this for life or death decisions.

TYPHOON MOLAVE [ISANG/07W/0906]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 016
12:00 AM PST (16:00 GMT) Sun 19 July 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / HKO TC WARNING & RADAR
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon MOLAVE (ISANG) still intensifying as it prepares to make landfall...The eye is expected to pass very close and make landfall north of Hong Kong between 2AM to 8AM today...Eastern Eyewall to enter Hong Kong in the next few hours.

*Residents and visitors along Southern China especially Guangdong Province should closely monitor the progress of MOLAVE.

**Important Note: Residents of Hong Kong must take precautionary measures, as NW Gale or Storm Signal No. 8 is now in force...strong winds expected in the next few hours. Kindly check out Hong Kong Observatory's bulletin for more details. Also check out the various wind gusts across various Automated Weather Station around HK in real-time.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MOLAVE is expected to continue moving West to WNW and shall make landfall in the vicinity of Hong Kong early this morning. MOLAVE is forecast to rapidly dissipate later tonight as it moves overland, across the mountainous terrain of Guangdong, China.

+ Effects: MOLAVE's core (Eye & Eyewall) is now within 100 km of HKO Radar. Near-Typhoon force winds has started to affect Hong Kong and neaby areas. The Eastern Eyewall of MOLAVE is expected to arrive over HK in the next few hours. Moderate to heavy rains with typhoon force winds of more than 120 kph can be expected at this moment until 9 AM today. Outer and inner rainbands on the other hand is expected to affect most of Guangdong Province. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 250 mm along MOLAVE's Eyewall. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible near the center of MOLAVE. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Coastal Guangdong, including the monsoon affected areas.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Moderate to strong southwesterly winds not in excess of 50 kph with occasional to continuous moderate to heavy rains, and passing squalls can be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) The new Tropical Disturbance 95W (LPA) trying to organize over the warm waters of the Philippine Sea...currently located near lat 12.4N lon 131.6E...or about 760 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...drifting West slowly while embedded within the Monsoon Trough (ITCZ).

This system will be closely monitored for possible development into a Significant Tropical Cyclone within the next 2 to 3 days. Watch for more information on this new disturbance as new data arrives. Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 AM PST Sun July 19 2009
Location of Eye: 22.4º N Lat 115.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 95 km (50 nm) East of Hong Kong
Distance 2: 155 km (83 nm) East of Macau
Distance 3: 200 km (108 nm) WSW of Shantou, China
Distance 4: 535 km (290 nm) West of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 5: 740 km (400 nm) WNW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 24 kph (13 kts)
General Direction: Hong Kong Area
Size (in Diameter): 650 km (350 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
HKO TrackMap (for Public): Real-Time
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 12Z Sat July 18
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 11 PM Sat July 18
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
JTWC 12 & 24 HR. FORECAST:

8 AM (00 GMT) 19 JULY: 23.2N 113.2E / 95-120 KPH / WNW @ 20 KPH
8 PM (12 GMT) 19 JULY: 23.8N 111.0E / 55-75 KPH / ... @ .. KPH

REMARKS: 8 PM (12 GMT) 18 JULY POSITION: 22.3N 115.9E.
^ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST
THREE HOURS AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FROM HONG KONG DEPICTS A
CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE TYPHOON IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST
NORTH OF HONG KONG AFTER 06 HRS THEN TRACK INLAND INTO CHINA AND
DISSIPATE BY 24 HOURS...(more)

>> MOLAVE, meaning: A popular hard wood used in furniture. Name contributed by: Philippines.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT HK OBSERVATORY TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY MOLAVE (ISANG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm