Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005
Name: TROPICAL STORM DURIAN [REMING/24W/0621]
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 28 NOVEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) TUE 28 NOVEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #009
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Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) TUE 28 NOVEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #009
____________
TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (24W) IS NOW ABOUT TO ENTER THE PHI-
LIPPINE AREA OF REPSONSIBILITY (PAR), THUS A LOCAL NAME
LIPPINE AREA OF REPSONSIBILITY (PAR), THUS A LOCAL NAME
WILL BE RELEASED: REMING...NOW MOVING SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTH-
WEST AND INTENSIFYING.
...All interests in the Samar, Bicol and Quezon Provinces
should closely monitor the progress of this potential ty-
phoon.
WEST AND INTENSIFYING.
...All interests in the Samar, Bicol and Quezon Provinces
should closely monitor the progress of this potential ty-
phoon.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DURIAN is expected to continue moving
WNW, becoming a Typhoon today. The 3 to 5-day (Dec 1-3)
Long-range forecast has changed and is now showing a more
northward turn passing a distance of 150 km to the north
of Catanduanes or 250 km to the NE of Naga City by early
morning of December 01. This system is forecast to reach
Category 4 strength with projected wind speeds of 215
km/hr and shall move across the coasts of Isabela and
hitting the eastern tip of Cagayan around Dec 03. Remem-
ber, that the 3 to 5-day forecasts have a very large mar-
gin of errors! KINDLY READ IMPORTANT NOTE BELOW.
+ EFFECTS: The storm's eastern circulation continues to
affect the tiny Micronesian islands of Ulithi and Yap.
Passing showers accompanied with gale-force winds will
continue to prevail across the areas today. Improving
weather conditions shall be expected tonight as the
storm moves away from West Micronesia.
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
____________
TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 28 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 11.2º N...LONGITUDE 136.0º E
DISTANCE 1: 295 KM (160 NM) NW OF COLONIA, YAP, FSM
DISTANCE 2: 1,155 KM (623 NM) ESE OF BORONGAN, E. SAMAR
DISTANCE 3: 1,300 KM (702 NM) ESE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES
DISTANCE 4: 1,405 KM (758 NM) ESE OF NAGA CITY
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 984 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BICOL REGION-QUEZON AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 520 KM (280 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 23 FEET (7.0 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 5 AM PST TUE NOVEMBER 28
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 28 NOV: 11.8N 134.0E / 120-150 KPH / WNW @ 24 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 29 NOV: 12.8N 131.5E / 140-165 KPH / WNW @ 26 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 30 NOV: 14.4N 126.9E / 215-260 KPH / WNW @ 11 KPH
REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 28 NOVEMBER POSITION: 11.0N 136.7E.
^THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD
THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
DEEP-LAYER (850-400 MB) RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THIS REA-
SONING IS SUPPORTED BY THE 8AM UPPER AIR ANALYSES THAT
DEPICT AN EAST/WEST RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE STORM (FROM
THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS WESTWARD TO THE LUZON STRAIT).
THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCE-
NARIO THROUGH 36 HOURS BUT DIVERGE THEREAFTER. THE NCEP GFS
IS A POLEWARD OUTLIER DEPICTING A DRAMATIC BREAK IN THE
STEERING RIDGE AND RECURVING THE STORM EAST OF LUZON. CON-
VERSELY, THE JTYM, JGSM, AND GFDN MAINTAIN A MORE EQUATOR-
WARD TRACK INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THIS FORECAST IS WEIGH-
TED TOWARD THE MORE EQUATORWARD GROUPING OF AIDS...(more info)
>> DURIAN {pronounced: door~yan}, meaning: Favourite fruit of
Thai people (Durio zibethinus). Name contributed by: Thailand.
____________
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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org )
__________________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.
latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
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__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS DURIAN (24W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
____________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
:: Typhoon2000.
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
For the complete details on TS DURIAN (24W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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