Tuesday, November 28, 2006

TS DURIAN (REMING) to enter PAR today... [Update #005]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005
Name: TROPICAL STORM DURIAN [REMING/24W/0621] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 28 NOVEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) TUE 28 NOVEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #009
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (24W) IS NOW ABOUT TO ENTER THE PHI-
LIPPINE AREA OF REPSONSIBILITY (PAR), THUS A LOCAL NAME
WILL BE RELEASED: REMING...NOW MOVING SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTH-
WEST AND INTENSIFYING.


...All interests in the Samar, Bicol and Quezon Provinces
should closely monitor the progress of this potential ty-
phoon.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DURIAN is expected to continue moving
WNW, becoming a Typhoon today. The 3 to 5-day (Dec 1-3)
Long-range forecast has changed and is now showing a more
northward turn passing a distance of 150 km to the north
of Catanduanes or 250 km to the NE of Naga City by early
morning of December 01. This system is forecast to reach
Category 4 strength with projected wind speeds of 215
km/hr and shall move across the coasts of Isabela and
hitting the eastern tip of Cagayan around Dec 03. Remem-
ber, that the 3 to 5-day forecasts have a very large mar-
gin of errors! KINDLY READ IMPORTANT NOTE BELOW


+ EFFECTS: The storm's eastern circulation continues to
affect the tiny Micronesian islands of Ulithi and Yap.
Passing showers accompanied with gale-force winds will
continue to prevail across the areas today. Improving
weather conditions shall be expected tonight as the
storm moves away from West Micronesia
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 28 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 11.2º N...LONGITUDE 136.0º E
DISTANCE 1: 295 KM (160 NM) NW OF COLONIA, YAP, FSM
DISTANCE 2: 1,155 KM (623 NM) ESE OF BORONGAN, E. SAMAR
DISTANCE 3: 1,300 KM (702 NM) ESE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES
DISTANCE 4: 1,405 KM (758 NM) ESE OF NAGA CITY
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 984 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BICOL REGION-QUEZON AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 520 KM (280 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 23 FEET (7.0 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 5 AM PST TUE NOVEMBER 28
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 28 NOV: 11.8N 134.0E / 120-150 KPH / WNW @ 24 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 29 NOV: 12.8N 131.5E / 140-165 KPH / WNW @ 26 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 30 NOV: 14.4N 126.9E / 215-260 KPH / WNW @ 11 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 28 NOVEMBER POSITION: 11.0N 136.7E.
^THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD
THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
DEEP-LAYER (850-400 MB) RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THIS REA-
SONING IS SUPPORTED BY THE 8AM UPPER AIR ANALYSES THAT
DEPICT AN EAST/WEST RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE STORM (FROM
THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS WESTWARD TO THE LUZON STRAIT).
THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCE-
NARIO THROUGH 36 HOURS BUT DIVERGE THEREAFTER. THE NCEP GFS
IS A POLEWARD OUTLIER DEPICTING A DRAMATIC BREAK IN THE
STEERING RIDGE AND RECURVING THE STORM EAST OF LUZON. CON-
VERSELY, THE JTYM, JGSM, AND GFDN MAINTAIN A MORE EQUATOR-
WARD TRACK INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THIS FORECAST IS WEIGH-
TED TOWARD THE MORE EQUATORWARD GROUPING OF AIDS..
.(more info)

>> DURIAN {pronounced: door~yan}, meaning: Favourite fruit of 
   Thai people (Durio zibethinus). Name contributed by: Thailand.

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TS DURIAN (24W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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