Monday, November 27, 2006

TS DURIAN approaching PAR... [Update #004]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004
Name: TROPICAL STORM DURIAN [24W/0621] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) MON 27 NOVEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) TUE 28 NOVEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #007
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (24W) HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS...PASSING NORTH OF ULITHI AND YAP IS-
LANDS...TO ENTER THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
(PAR) TOMORROW MORNING.

...All interests in the Samar, Bicol and Quezon Provinces
should closely monitor the progress of this potential typhoon.
The Philippine local disaster units must be on alert status
beginning today as this system might become a dange-
rous Typhoon similar to Super Typhoons ANGELA (ROSING) [Nov 3,
1995] & NINA (SISANG) [Nov 26, 1987]
.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DURIAN is expected to turn towards the
WNW, becoming a Typhoon tomorrow afternoon. The 3 to 5-day
(Nov 30-Dec 02) Long-range forecast still shows the system
growing into an extremely dangerous Category 4 Typhoon (215
km/hr), passing over the Northern Coasts of Catanduanes
and Caramoan Peninsula (Camarines Sur) in Bicol Region by
Thursday morning til the afternoon, Nov 30 (approx. from 8
AM til 5 PM local time) - with a close distance of more or
less 100 km to the North of Naga City. This system is fore-
cast to move across Polillo Island before making landfall
just North of Infanta, Quezon around noontime of Friday,
Dec 01. DURIAN shall cross Central Luzon in the afternoon
up to the evening of Dec 01 - passing across the provinces
of Northern Quezon, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Southern Pangasi-
nan & Northern Zambales. DURIAN shall be over the South
China Sea Saturday morning, Dec 02


+ EFFECTS: The storm's circulation continues to affect the
tiny Micronesian islands of Ulithi and Yap. Passing showers
accompanied with gale-force winds will prevail across these
areas today. Improving weather conditions shall be expected
tomorrow as the storm moves away from West Micronesia
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 27 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 10.8º N...LONGITUDE 137.7º E
DISTANCE 1: 150 KM (80 NM) NNW OF COLONIA, YAP, FSM
DISTANCE 2: 1,345 KM (725 NM) ESE OF BORONGAN, E. SAMAR
DISTANCE 3: 1,490 KM (805 NM) ESE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES
DISTANCE 4: 1,605 KM (865 NM) ESE OF NAGA CITY
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 991 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 20 KM/HR (11 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BICOL REGION-QUEZON AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 370 KM (200 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 22 FEET (6.7 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 5 PM PST MON NOVEMBER 27
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 28 NOV: 11.2N 135.8E / 100-130 KPH / WNW @ 24 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 28 NOV: 11.9N 133.2E / 120-150 KPH / WNW @ 28 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 29 NOV: 13.2N 127.6E / 185-230 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 27 NOVEMBER POSITION: 10.7N 138.3E.
^An approaching mid-latitude low-pressure trough is forecast
to weaken the steering ridge over Luzon after 72 hours; TS
Durian will track northwestward toward this developing weak-
ness. TS Durian is forecast to reach maximum intensity prior
to making landfall in the Philippines, and will weaken slight-
ly due to terrain interaction and disruption of the low level
inflow, and drier air becomes ingested into the
circulation..
.(more info)

>> DURIAN {pronounced: door~yan}, meaning: Favourite fruit of 
   Thai people (Durio zibethinus). Name contributed by: Thailand.

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS DURIAN (24W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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