Sunday, November 26, 2006

Potential Super Typhoon named DURIAN heads for RP... [Update #001]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001
Name: TROPICAL STORM DURIAN [24W/0621] 
Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) SUN 26 NOVEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) SUN 26 NOVEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #002
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURIAN (24W) RAPIDLY BECOMES
A TROPICAL STORM...HEADS FOR THE PHILIPPINES WITH A POTENTIAL
SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH...SAMAR, BICOL AND QUEZON INCLUDING
AURORA IN SERIOUS THREAT
.

...All interests in the Samar, Bicol and Quezon Provinces
should closely monitor the progress of this potential typhoon.
The Philippine local disaster units must be on alert status
beginning tomorrow, Monday as this system might become a dange-
rous Typhoon similar to Super Typhoons ANGELA (ROSING) [Nov 3,
1995] & NINA (SISANG) [Nov 26, 1987]
.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DURIAN is expected to accelerate WNW and
intensify further into a Typhoon within the next 24 to 48 hours.
It is likely to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)
Tuesday morning, Nov 28. The 3 to 5-day (Nov 29-Dec 01) Long-range
forecast shows the system growing into an extremely dangerous Ca-
tegory 4 Super Typhoon (240 km/hr), passing to the North of Bicol
Region (approx 100 km North of Catanduanes) Thursday morning, Nov
30. This system shall approach the Eastern Coast of Northern Que-
zon Friday morning (8 AM Dec 01) at Category 5 with projected wind
speed of 250 km/hr


+ EFFECTS: The storm's northern circulation continues affecting
the Southern Mariana Islands including Guam. Passing showers accom-
panied with gale-force winds to prevail across the islands today.
Improving weather conditions shall be expected tomorrow as the
storm moves away from the area
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) 26 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 9.4º N...LONGITUDE 143.9º E
DISTANCE 1: 455 KM (245 NM) SSW OF HAGATNA, GUAM, CNMI
DISTANCE 2: 635 KM (345 NM) EAST OF COLONIA, YAP, FSM
DISTANCE 3: 2,035 KM (1,100 NM) ESE OF BORONGAN, E. SAMAR
DISTANCE 4: 2,185 KM (1,180 NM) ESE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 997 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 20 KM/HR (11 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 300 KM (160 NM)/SMALL
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 18 FEET (5.4 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 11 AM PST SUN NOVEMBER 26
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 26 NOV: 10.0N 142.2E / 85-100 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 27 NOV: 10.8N 140.3E / 110-140 KPH / WNW @ 20 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 28 NOV: 12.5N 135.6E / 175-215 KPH / WNW @ 24 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 26 NOVEMBER POSITION: 9.2N 144.4E.
^ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED QUICKLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLES AND BETTER ORGANIZATION
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER..
.(more info)

>> DURIAN {pronounced: door~yan}, meaning: Favourite fruit of 
   Thai people (Durio zibethinus). Name contributed by: Thailand.

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS DURIAN (24W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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