Wednesday, November 29, 2006

TS DURIAN (REMING) accelerating faster towards Luzon... [Update #006]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #006
Name: TROPICAL STORM DURIAN [REMING/24W/0621] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) TUE 28 NOVEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) WED 29 NOVEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #011
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (REMING) GAINED MORE STRENGTH AS IT
NEARS TYPHOON STRENGTH...CONTINUES TO MOVE FASTER, CLOSER
TO THE COASTS OF BICOL, SAMAR AND QUEZON PROVINCES
.

...All interests in the Samar, Bicol, Quezon and Aurora
Provinces should closely monitor the progress of this
potential typhoon.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DURIAN is expected to continue moving
WNW due to the weakening of the High Pressure Ridge north
of it & to become a Typhoon tonight. The 2 to 5-day (Nov
30-Dec 03) long-range forecast remains the same showing a
more northwesterly turn, sparing the Bicol Region - pa-
ssing at distance of more or less 200 km to the NE of Ca-
tanduanes or 300 km to the NE of Naga City around Thursday
afternoon, Nov 30. This system is forecast to slow down
while reaching Category 4 strength with projected wind
speeds of 215 km/hr and shall make landfall along Eastern
Cagayan Saturday evening, Dec 02. DURIAN shall cross Ca-
gayan (passing very close to Aparri) by Sunday afternoon
Dec 03. Remember, that the 2 to 5-day forecast have a very
large margin of errors! KINDLY READ IMPORTANT NOTE BELOW


+ EFFECTS: The storm's eastern circulation (outer bands)
has left Western Micronesia. Meanwhile, its western circu-
lation shall reach the eastern sections of Bicol, Samar
and Surigao tomorrow morning or afternoon, November 29
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 28 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 12.2º N...LONGITUDE 132.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 860 KM (465 NM) ESE OF CATARMAN, N. SAMAR
DISTANCE 2: 900 KM (485 NM) ESE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES
DISTANCE 3: 960 KM (520 NM) ESE OF LEGAZPI CITY
DISTANCE 4: 1,020 KM (550 NM) ESE OF NAGA CITY
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 110 KM/HR (60 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 980 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 30 KM/HR (17 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: EASTERN LUZON
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 555 KM (300 NM)/AVERAGE/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 23 FEET (7.0 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 5 PM PST TUE NOVEMBER 28
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 29 NOV: 12.9N 130.3E / 140-165 KPH / WNW @ 24 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 29 NOV: 13.8N 127.8E / 160-195 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 30 NOV: 15.7N 124.7E / 205-270 KPH / NW @ 05 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 28 NOVEMBER POSITION: 11.9N 133.2E.
^THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD
THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
DEEP-LAYER (850-400 MB) RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THIS REA-
SONING IS SUPPORTED BY THE 8AM UPPER AIR ANALYSES THAT
DEPICT AN EAST/WEST RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE STORM (FROM
THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS WESTWARD TO THE LUZON STRAIT).
THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCE-
NARIO THROUGH 36 HOURS BUT DIVERGE THEREAFTER. THE NCEP GFS
IS A POLEWARD OUTLIER DEPICTING A DRAMATIC BREAK IN THE
STEERING RIDGE AND RECURVING THE STORM EAST OF LUZON. CON-
VERSELY, THE JTYM, JGSM, AND GFDN MAINTAIN A MORE EQUATOR-
WARD TRACK INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THIS FORECAST IS WEIGH-
TED TOWARD THE MORE EQUATORWARD GROUPING OF AIDS..
.(more info)

>> DURIAN {pronounced: door~yan}, meaning: Favourite fruit of 
   Thai people (Durio zibethinus). Name contributed by: Thailand.

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS DURIAN (REMING)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
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