Friday, November 10, 2006

TS CHEBI (QUEENIE) intensifying...heads for Central Luzon [Update #002]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002
Name: TROPICAL STORM CHEBI [QUEENIE/23W/0620] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) FRI 10 NOVEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) FRI 10 NOVEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #004
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL STORM CHEBI (QUEENIE) HAS ACCELERATED FURTHER
TOWARDS THE WEST, CLOSER TO AURORA-NORTHERN QUEZON AREA
.
THREAT TO LUZON CONTINUES TO INCREASE.


...ALL INTERESTS IN THE LUZON AND NORTHERN VISAYAS,
PHILIPPINES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM CHEBI.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: CHEBI is expected to continue inten-
sifying while heading Westward towards Luzon, the High
Pressure Area near Taiwan-Hong Kong area shall steer the
storm within the next 2 to 3 days, thus, a WSW track is
anticipated. The 2-day medium-range forecast (Nov 11 to
12) shows the system becoming a Category 1 Typhoon with
1-min average winds of 140 km/hr and making landfall
along Aurora, very close to Casiguran tomorrow afternoon
(Sat, Nov 11), and cross Northern Luzon on a WSW track
via the provinces of Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya &
Nueva Ecija tomorrow night. It shall be over the pro-
vince of Pangasinan or just to the South of Dagupan City
around 3 AM Sunday early morning, Nov. 12. CHEBI's long-
range forecast (Nov 13 to 15) shows the system exiting
Western Luzon and continuing on a WSW to SW movement
across the South China Sea


+ EFFECTS: CHEBI's advance outer bands continues to
spread across the Bicol Region, Samar Provinces, Masbate,
Burias & Ticao Islands, Romblon and the rest of Northern
Visayas. Cloudy conditions with occasional rains and winds
not more than 60 km/hr can be expected today. Deteriora-
ting weather conditions can be expected over Central &
Northern Luzon tonight as the storm approaches
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 10 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 16.0º N...LONGITUDE 127.9º E
DISTANCE 1: 480 KM (260 NM) NE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES
DISTANCE 2: 570 KM (307 NM) NE OF NAGA CITY
DISTANCE 3: 620 KM (335 NM) EAST OF CASIGURAN, AURORA
DISTANCE 4: 745 KM (402 NM) ENE OF METRO MANILA
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 991 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 26 KM/HR (14 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: AURORA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 445 KM (240 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 16 FEET (4.8 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 5 AM PST FRI NOVEMBER 10
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - CATANDUANES, CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, 
      QUEZON, POLILLO ISLAND, AURORA, QUIRINO AND 
      ISABELA.
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 10 NOV: 16.1N 125.7E / 100-130 KPH / W @ 20 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 11 NOV: 16.3N 123.4E / 140-165 KPH / W @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 12 NOV: 15.8N 120.5E / 100-130 KPH / WSW @ 11 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 10 NOVEMBER POSITION: 16.0N 128.6E.
^TS CHEBI CONTINUES TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LOWER-LEVEL (700 MB) RIDGING
TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 24 HOURS, AS THE TRACK OF THE SYS-
TEM DEPENDS UPON STORM INTENSITY AND THE DEPTH OF FORECAST
MIDLATITUDE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN ASIA. A DEEPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM WOULD INDUCE A WEAKNESS IN
THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND LEAD TO SLOWER/MORE POLE-
WARD MOVEMENT AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL ON LUZON,
PHILIPPINES..
.(more info)

_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 4 AM (20 GMT) 10 NOVEMBER: 15.9N 128.5E / W @ 22 KPH / 75 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website 
   at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red bold letters indicate new 
      areas being hoisted.
For more explanations on these 
      signals, visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS CHEBI (QUEENIE)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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